Week 13 Need to Know: Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
I do know the Twitterverse already loves to unload on the painfully apparent ineptitude of Taysom Hill, but it surely’s simply so irritating to watch again and again. Sean Payton wants a Taysom intervention. I megaloathe Hill. Does Payton work together with any human being exterior of his sphere of affect? Like, if I bumped into him on the road, I’d simply ask, “What are you seeing that everybody else shouldn’t be?” Payton has stated he can play security, tight finish, H-back, and many others. Yeah, properly, let him do this, please. Payton has stated Hill may very well be the following Steve Younger! *eye twitch*
Let’s simply transfer on to this week’s need-to-knows!
Table of Contents
1. Tony Pollard vs. Ezekiel Elliott
It’s been effervescent for weeks. We’ve seen it coming since a minimum of final season, however the perfect again on the Cowboys is Pollard and it’s not significantly shut. Elliott nonetheless has his charms, after all. He’s a well-built again who can rumble between the tackles. Or can he? The Cowboys use him in these conditions however he’s not good at that, both. You’d assume as a result of he’s not shifting as fast as he used to, Elliott continues to be a 6-foot, 230-pound athlete with 9 touchdowns on the yr. They’re utilizing him on the purpose line, so he have to be good at it? Proper?
I imagine the quintessential dashing stats are dashing yards after contact per rush (YAC/att) and dashing makes an attempt per damaged tackles (Att/Br). It’s not good, as a result of some backs are extra elusive, some get extra exterior rushes so first contact comes later within the play (exterior rushes take longer to develop), and the record goes on. However let’s simply focus right here for now.
Elliott has 312 dashing yards after contact and averages a paltry 1.8 YAC/Att. He has six damaged tackles this yr. Sure, you learn that proper: six. That comes out to 28.8 Att/Br. That’s not good.
As said although, these stats don’t inform the entire story. Pollard’s numbers in these classes aren’t that a lot better (2.2 YAC/Att and 17.8 Att/Br). What’s completely different right here is that amongst operating backs with 100-plus carries this yr, Pollard is first in yards earlier than contact per try (YBC/att). So not solely is he additional downfield than any operating again earlier than getting touched on common, he’s nonetheless doing greater than Elliott after contact.
Elliott is beneath contract with the Cowboys till 2026. Over these 5 years of the deal, he’s on the hook for $65.3 million, or only a hair over $13M per yr. There’s no likelihood he sees greater than one other yr with the workforce. Pollard’s base wage is $850,000 in 2021 and $965,000 in 2022 earlier than he turns into an unrestricted free agent in 2023.
Contract or long-view apart, the on-field outcomes communicate for themselves. Don’t want to be knowledgeable soccer coach to find a way to see Pollard ought to proceed to see a bigger position.
2. Assessing Trevor Lawrence
Contemplating the criticism confronted by a few of the different rookie quarterbacks on this class, it appears as if Lawrence is getting a move. It’s been straightforward to pile on Zach Wilson and Justin Fields. Second-year QB Jalen Hurts has had loads of WTF moments with errant throws and questionable reads. How does Lawrence stack up to his friends?
Two crimson flags come out to me: unhealthy throw share (Unhealthy%) and on-target share (OnTgt%). Each stats exclude spikes and throwaways. On the yr, Lawrence has 93 unhealthy throws (for a 24.1 Unhealthy%) and sports activities a 67.4 OnTgt%. That’s the worst OnTgt% and second-worst Unhealthy% of any quarterback with a minimum of 160 move makes an attempt.
Possibly it’s move safety (or lack thereof)? Nicely, Lawrence is pressured on 24% of dropbacks (Prss%). That’s fifteenth amongst quarterbacks with a minimum of 160 move makes an attempt, so proper across the center of the pack. He additionally has a mostly-average pocket time (PktTime) of two.4 seconds. He’s been hit 41 instances, the identical whole as Josh Allen and another than Justin Herbert, so the Jaguars’ line doesn’t seem to be any higher or worse than a lot of the OL models within the recreation.
PlayerProfiler has some attention-grabbing superior stats for QB play that I really feel are reflective of a few of what we’ve already lined. Lawrence has 29 hazard performs (unnecessarily dangerous play that might’ve resulted in a turnover, fifth-most within the league. He has 32 interceptable passes, second-most within the league. They provide him a 6.9 accuracy score, the place every throw’s accuracy is rated from 1 to 10, good for thirty fourth.
Most rookie quarterback evaluations merely have too many components at play. We now have to take into account his supporting solid, playcalling, teaching and the record goes on. Am I overly involved? As a fantasy supervisor, no. I’m not beginning him and I assume you aren’t, both. He isn’t enjoying properly, so why would you? As a Jaguars fan, I’d be extra upset within the workforce as a complete as a result of no one is enjoying very properly. However there’s not quite a lot of silver lining right here and we’ll have to see how head coach City Meyer and normal supervisor Trent Baalke proceed this offseason.
3. The misplaced artwork of touchdown the waiver wire league winner
I’d argue the league winner of 2021 shouldn’t be going to be Dontrell Hilliard, Chuba Hubbard or Alexander Mattison, and many others. It’s not a man who may even emerge from the harm aftermath of Week 13 and past.
The league winners of 2021 are Elijah Mitchell and Cordarrelle Patterson. Some receivers have emerged, after all, however in the event you take a look at the highest 30 receivers this yr, possibly Hunter Renfrow wasn’t drafted and was a waiver wire add. However all these guys are gamers we anticipated to be good.
Let’s dive into some context right here, although.
The 2020 season was a little bit of an aberration for the 49ers’ run recreation. Accidents plagued their backfield. Raheem Mostert missed eight video games, Tevin Coleman missed eight weeks and Jeff Wilson missed 4. Their No. 4 again was Jerick McKinnon… Need I say extra?
So let’s return to 2019 then. The 49ers had been second-best in dashing yards, solely behind the much more run-heavy Baltimore Ravens. Keep in mind that was Lamar Jackson’s MVP yr so their dashing totals had been off the charts. San Francisco’s zone run scheme was in full impact as that they had three operating backs with 500-plus dashing yards (Mostert, Coleman and Matt Breida).
That’s a cause why Trey Sermon was considered so extremely within the offseason by most fantasy analysts. He was supposed to be the man. Sky’s the restrict, proper? It simply seems our consideration was off by one. It was Elijah Mitchell who could be the unlikely underdog to carry the load. Sermon hasn’t actually been ready to get going all yr and Mitchell has been greater than able to toting the rock in his absence. We’ve all seen it.
For the Falcons, possibly we whiffed on Mike Davis, however fantasy managers had an opportunity to pivot. Patterson’s Week 1 recreation wasn’t a lot and his Week 2 felt a bit fluky. That stated, in the event you return and watch Patterson in these video games, he jumps off the display in contrast to Davis. He was operating harder, better, faster, stronger!
Whenever you take a look at the highest scoring operating backs this yr, Patterson’s 18.6 PPR factors per recreation are sixth-best within the league. However just like the 49ers, we had been one participant off. It was Patterson, not Davis, who could be the man. After Week 1, you had to add Mitchell after he delivered 104 dashing yards and a landing on 19 carries. After Week 2, you had to add Patterson after he offered 69 mixed yards and two touchdowns.
If you happen to missed out on each, you want to take into consideration why this occurred. What in your analysis of their conditions scared you off? You can not miss out on the season breakouts. Why? As a result of you’ll not have a success with each draft decide!
If you happen to merely didn’t bid sufficient for both man—that’s a troublesome tablet to swallow. Now you already know you’ve received to be extra aggressive along with your FAAB bids. If you happen to didn’t have the waiver wire precedence and missed on each, I don’t agree with the usage of waiver wire precedence so I might speak to your commissioner about utilizing a FAAB system because it provides an exquisite technique wrinkle each week.
For people who really feel fantasy is all luck, you’re in all probability the man in your league who doesn’t churn his roster each week to embrace rising gamers. You’re in all probability the man who whiffs on early-season breakouts. You’re in all probability the man who doesn’t learn to the underside of articles like this, anyway. Kudos to these of you who did.
4. Week 13 SI Fantasy Should-Reads
Earlier than setting your lineups, ensure you take a look at a few of the world-class fantasy lowdown from our SI Fantasy analysts: