When enjoying Day by day Fantasy for the NFL it is essential to make use of the suitable technique for the appropriate contest. Money video games or 50/50s require much less threat and extra steady gamers whereas Assured Prize Swimming pools just like the Millionaire Maker want a little bit of threat labored into lineups. The next technique is geared towards having a worthwhile day in GPPs.
All gamers listed are for the principle slate of video games on Sunday.
Quarterback Stacks
Tom Brady, Tampa Buccaneers
Over his first 10 video games, Brady averaged 318 yards and three touchdowns. His play has been distinctive at residence (30.24 FPPG – 20 touchdowns and three interceptions). He has the second-most move makes an attempt (423) within the league, resulting in the highest quarterback rating (275.95 fantasy factors). Brady scored over 30.00 fantasy factors in 5 matchups.
The Colts ranks twenty eighth in quarterback protection (23.42 FPPG). Two groups handed for over 400 yards (BAL – 442/4 and NYJ – 412/4) whereas struggling vs. the move in three different contests (SEA – 263/4, TEN – 253/3, and TEN – 290/3). As well as, Indy controls the injury in speeding touchdowns (4).
Brady initiatives to move for 318 yards and three touchdowns. SI Sportsbook lists his matchup with the very best over/beneath (53.5) of the day. The Colts wish to management the clock with Jonathan Taylor with the hopes of conserving Brady on the sidelines. Sadly, their defensive struggles could very properly result in a reverse consequence in recreation script.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
After 11 weeks, Hurts is the fourth-highest scoring quarterback (277.10 fantasy factors) regardless of passing for fewer than 200 yards in his earlier 4 begins. His capability to run (114/618/8) units a excessive flooring whereas including explosiveness in matchups when he succeeds in each areas of the sport. Over his previous six begins, Hurts averaged solely 23 passes. He has three impression video games (31.40, 32.05, and 32.25 fantasy factors) on the 12 months.
The Giants held quarterbacks to fewer than 20.00 fantasy factors in three of their 4 final matchups, however they nonetheless rank twenty second in quarterback protection (22.04 FPPG). Dallas is the one offense to move for over 300 yards (324) with three touchdowns towards the Giants. New York permits 6.9 yards per move try. Their solely failure towards a operating quarterback got here vs. the Saints (6/28/2).
His rising wage makes him a tougher play within the every day video games, particularly when factoring in a recreation script with a struggling Giants offense.
Michael Chow/The Arizona Republic/USA TODAY NETWORK
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Newton delivered the sixth-highest rating (28.05 fantasy factors) at quarterback in his first begin for the Panthers. His alternative as a runner remained robust (10/46/1). He accomplished 77.4 p.c of his passes out of the gate.
Miami performed higher vs. the move over the earlier 4 video games (249/2, 240/3, 238, and 291/2 – 6.05 yards per move try) regardless of going through 168 throws. Since Week 3, eight of their 9 opponents tried a minimal of 39 passes. As well as, the Dolphins picked the move rush over their previous three contests (11 sacks), resulting in fewer factors allowed (9, 10, and 17). Tampa (452/5), Las Vegas (386/2), and Atlanta (336/2) had essentially the most success by way of the air when going through Miami. Quarterbacks gained 182 yards with one rating on the bottom on 45 carries.
Newton has the instruments to push increased within the passing recreation whereas nonetheless being priced low sufficient to fill his wage bucket with a 25.00 fantasy level day. Miami additionally struggles to defender huge receivers (169/2,107/14).
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Twice during the last three weeks, Herbert posted an impression day (370/3 and 472/3). He has been extra lively as a runner over his previous three begins (16/126/1). Herbert climbed to 3rd in quarterback scoring (26.42 FPPG). When at his finest, he posted 4 monster days (33.65, 46.80, 35.20, and 39.10 fantasy factors). In his different six begins, Herbert scored beneath 20.00 fantasy factors in 4 matchups. In opposition to the Broncos in two video games in 2020, he handed for 531 yards with 4 touchdowns.
Denver has but to permit over 25.50 fantasy factors to a quarterback, with 5 opponents scoring lower than 20.00 fantasy factors. They rank fourth defending quarterbacks (18.33 FPPG). Baltimore is the one offense to unravel their protection (344/3).
Herbert tends to play higher at residence, and his matchup seems to be to have a decrease ceiling. Nonetheless, his receiving expertise offers him an opportunity in Week 11 if pressured to chase on the scoreboard.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Burrow derailed fantasy groups over the earlier three weeks as a consequence of two uninteresting outings (282/0 and /148/1) and a bye week. But, regardless of his regression, he nonetheless accomplished 69.6 p.c of his passes over this span. Burrow performed properly in his first three residence video games (261/2, 348/2, and 2821/2) whereas failing to publish an impression day within the fantasy house. In his first recreation vs. the Steelers in Week 3, he tried solely 18 passes, resulting in 172 yards and three touchdowns.
Pittsburgh had no solutions for Justin Herbert in Week 11 (472/3), coming after 4 profitable video games (209/1, 225/0, 291/1, and 114/0) towards the move. The Steelers fell to thirteenth in quarterback protection (21.04 FPPG) whereas displaying extra threat defending the run (4.8 yards per rush).
Burrow has a contrarian really feel whereas proudly owning the receiving expertise to publish an impression recreation if requested to throw the ball over 40 occasions. His wage stays favorable. It’s all in regards to the CHASE on the scoreboard in Week 11.
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
After a four-game shedding streak, the 49ers gained three video games over the previous 4 weeks whereas scoring over 30 factors in every win. Garoppolo threw the ball persistently over his earlier 4 video games (1,006/6) regardless of averaging solely 27.25 passes. His completion price (69.7) and yards per move try (9.2) have been distinctive over this span. As well as, Brandon Aiyuk confirmed progress over his final three begins (16/200/2), and his high huge receiver (Deebo Samuel) has been a beast all season (55/994/5 plus 19 rushes for 137 yards and three scores). Garoppolo ranks twentieth in quarterback scoring (169.60 fantasy factors), with just one playable recreation (30.50 fantasy factors).
Minnesota fell to twenty sixth in quarterback protection (23.02 FPPG) after struggling vs. quarterbacks in two of their previous three video games (BAL – 386/3 and GB – 405/4). Their protection will stress the quarterback (31 sacks), however huge receivers destroyed their secondary in three video games (ARI – 17/277/3, DAL – 18/325/2, and GB – 15/304/3).
San Francisco has three wonderful choices within the passing recreation, giving Garoppolo a excessive ceiling if recreation circulate results in a high-scoring affair. Fantasy house owners will likely be drawn to this recreation within the every day contests, however I’d additionally be certain I’ve some tickets on the 49ers run recreation. I see a three-player 49ers recreation stack with Garoppolo and two of his receivers.
Basis Gamers
The highest gamers at operating again and huge receiver are priced extraordinarily excessive this week, making it difficult to roster two choices in your every day lineup.
RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Taylor was simple to miss in Week 11 as a consequence of his matchup towards the Payments however he ended up scoring 53.40 fantasy factors, due to 204 mixed yards with 5 touchdowns and three catches, resulting in any group with out Taylor having a minimal probability of cashing a profitable ticket. He completed with a career-high 35 touches whereas being on the sector for 83 p.c of the Colts’ performs. Taylor gained over 100 mixed yards in every of his final eight begins.
Tampa Bay slipped to tenth in operating again fantasy protection (22.38 FPPG) after permitting over 30.00 fantasy factors in two of their previous three matchups. The Bucs additionally struggled to defend backs in two different contests (37.50 and 36.00 fantasy factors). They permit 4.0 yards per rush, with operating backs scoring six touchdowns.
Taylor has a greater matchup than anticipated given the Bucs current run protection troubles, even when NT Vita Vea returns from his knee damage.
RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
The distinction between McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor final week was 28.40 fantasy factors, and the Panthers rusher was the third-highest scoring operating backs (24.90 fantasy factors). Over the previous two video games, McCaffrey gained 270 mixed yards with one rating and 17 catches. The Panthers had him on the sector for a season-high 90 p.c of their performs.
Of their final six matchups, Miami held operating backs to lower than 20.00 fantasy factors, lifting them to eleventh in operating again protection (22.63 FPPG). Their season began with far more threat over the primary 5 weeks (26.40, 33.50, 39.00, 25.80, and 37.10 fantasy factors). The Dolphins haven’t confronted a top-tier operating again since Week 4. They’ve held just one offense to fewer than 4.0 yards per rush.
RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Harris has the most effective matchup (CIN) of the top-tier backs based mostly on defensive operating again rankings (27.03 FPPG – twenty seventh. Operating backs have 76 catches for 583 yards and two touchdowns whereas scoring 10 total touchdowns. A lot of the injury to backs got here in 4 contests (PIT – 145 mixed yards with 15 catches, GB – 193 mixed yards with one landing and 9 catches, NYJ – 262 mixed yards with two touchdowns and 14 catches, and CLE – 201 mixed yards with two touchdowns, and three catches).
The manufacturing of Harris has been decrease over his final three begins (16.80, 17.30, and 16.90 fantasy factors), which comes after 5 straight video games over 20.00 fantasy factors. From Week 3 to Week 10, over seven contests, he averaged 26.9 touches. Based mostly on alternative, Harris ranks on the high of the league after the damage to Derrick Henry. Within the combine at top-end at operating again, however he wants to attain greater than 30.00 fantasy factors to be price his wage funding.
Nov 15, 2021; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers huge receiver Deebo Samuel (19) interacts with followers throughout a timeout towards the Los Angeles Rams within the fourth quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Obligatory Credit score: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports activities
WR Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers upped Samuel’s probabilities within the run recreation over the previous two weeks (5/36/1 and 8/79/1), creating a better degree to his fantasy worth. He ranks second in huge receiver scoring (21.41 FPPG). Regardless of receiving solely seven mixed targets over the previous two matchups, Samuel nonetheless scored 46.30 fantasy factors. He gained over 100 yards in six contests whereas delivering three impression video games (32.90, 35.70, and 30.30 fantasy factors).
Minnesota sits thirtieth in huge receiver protection (42.44 FPPG) whereas getting dusted in three matchups (62.70, 64.25, and 62.70 fantasy factors). Wideouts have 140 catches for 1,958 yards and 13 touchdowns. The Vikings permit 14.0 yards per catch.
Samuel provides some salary-cap aid on the finish excessive finish of huge receiver. He seems to be poised to shine whereas stealing some speeding stats.
WR Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor stole the offensive present for the Colts during the last two weeks, resulting in Pittman seeing solely 10 mixed targets with seven catches for 94 yards. His finest output got here in 4 matchups (8/123, 6/89/1, 4/105/1, and 10/86/2). He ranks nineteenth in huge receiver scoring (163.00 fantasy factors) regardless of averaging solely 7.4 targets.
Tampa struggled vs. wideouts over the primary three weeks (27/303/3, 17/277/3, and 19/291/3). Over the following seven video games, they allowed solely two touchdowns to huge receivers with 73 catches and 736 yards. Their success got here from a good move schedule (NE, MIA, PHI, CHI, NO, WAS, and NYG).
Tom Brady will produce touchdowns, resulting in Indy needing to throw to win the sport. Pittman has multi-touchdowns upside with an affordable probability to realize over 100 yards.
TE Evan Engram, New York Giants
Over the previous couple of weeks at tight finish, the theme has been to choose on the Eagles’ protection. Philly ranks final within the league vs. tight ends (81/811/9), with their final seven opponents scoring over 17.00 fantasy factors. The Cowboys (8/94/2) and Chargers (11/126/2) have had essentially the most success.
Engram brings an underperforming resume (28/236/2 on 41 targets) over eight video games. He failed to realize over 55 yards in every matchup whereas averaging 5.1 targets. Engram scored in Week 8 (3/15/1) and Week 9 (3/38/1), placing his manufacturing in a variety along with his present wage. The Giants’ passing offense has been a multitude for 5 weeks, however a fired offensive coordinator could breathe some life into Daniel Jones on this matchup. If I exploit Engram this week, it will be vital for Kyle Rudolph to be inactive.
Worth Performs
For anybody on the lookout for worth on the backend of their roster, I’d take note of the Texans’ backfield. David Johnson and Rex Burkhead struggled to realize yards within the run recreation (3.0 yards per rush), and Houston’s operating backs solely have one landing over their final eight video games.
The Jets have the worst protection by a large margin towards operating backs (37.69 FPPG). Backs have 23 touchdowns with loads of success within the passing recreation (72/655/4).
Final week, Houston had Johnson on the sector for 55 p.c of their snaps whereas Burkhead labored because the RB2 (42 p.c of the enjoying time).
Right here’s my Week 12 Perfect Lineup:
The construction of this lineup additionally permits the pliability to roster Dalvin Prepare dinner and Adam Thielen by swapping out Christian McCaffrey and Michael Pittman, however a transfer at flex from David Johnson to Rex Burkhead can be required.
