The Patriots head into Thursday Night Football on a four-game win streak behind Rookie of the Yr candidate, Mac Jones. Jones is trying increasingly more like an ideal match for this offense, and he’s coming off his finest efficiency of the season.
New England’s sign caller threw for 198 yards and three touchdowns with an 82.6% completion fee in a 45-7 beatdown of the Browns on Sunday. The Patriots offense has sprung to life. Throughout the final three video games, New England has scored the third-most factors within the NFL averaging 32 factors per recreation.
- Moneyline: New England (-300) | Atlanta (+240)
- Unfold: New England -6.5 (-110) | Atlanta +6.5(-110)
- Whole: 47.5 -Over (-110) | Below (-110)
- Sport Information: Nov. 18, 2021, 8:20 p.m. ET | NFL Community
Atlanta, however, suffered a crushing beatdown on Sunday, shedding to the Cowboys 43-3. Matt Ryan threw for a mere 117 yards with zero touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. That’s…. not good. However what’s even worse, Atlanta could have misplaced its Swiss Military knife secret weapon, Cordarrelle Patterson.
Patterson will most likely miss the sport on Thursday because of a sprained ankle, and which means Mike Davis and Wayne Gallman will share the backfield. Atlanta is already lacking Calvin Ridley, so the lack of Patterson is an enormous blow. Atlanta has averaged 19.8 factors per recreation on the season, and solely 14.3 factors per recreation throughout the final three.
Defensively, New England has been dominant all yr. On the season, New England is surrendering a mere 17.7 factors per recreation—the second-lowest mark within the league. Throughout the previous three? 12.3. That’s the polar reverse of Atlanta which has surrendered 29.2 factors per recreation on the yr, with a mean of 29 factors per recreation throughout the final three. Yowza.
To be trustworthy, once I take a look at this, I’m shocked to see New England solely favored by 6.5. Sure, they’re the highway workforce, however I don’t see how Atlanta will be capable to cowl this unfold. We all know Invoice Belichick will take out the No. 1 receiver in Atlanta, and which means rookie TE Kyle Pitts might be shut down. That leaves Tajae Sharpe and Russell Gage as Ryan’s pass-catchers, and that’s assuming Ryan doesn’t simply throw picks all night time. The backfield might be shared by two underwhelming working backs which have mixed for a mere 376 yards and one TD all yr.
I’m laying the factors and taking New England. I’m additionally leaning towards the below on the sport complete of 47.5. On a brief week, I feel New England’s offense might be much less explosive, and I can’t see Atlanta placing up a ton of factors on the NE protection with out a few of their key gamers.
Now, let’s check out some participant props.
The Atlanta Falcons are permitting a mean of 255.8 passing yards per recreation. In his finest recreation of the yr Sunday, Jones solely handed for 198 yards. He’s solely exceeded this quantity in 4 of ten video games this yr. In three of these 4 video games, he was taking part in from behind, and the opposite recreation was vs. the Jets. The Patriots appear to have two stud working backs in Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson who will help carry the load in a brief week, and I count on New England to have the ability to management the tempo of this recreation.
My fantasy groups hate me for this one, however I don’t see Pitts having an enormous recreation on Thursday. We all know Belichick likes to remove the primary receiver, and if no Cordarrelle Patterson, which means Kyle Pitts goes to be getting all the eye. Pitts has solely exceeded this prop thrice in 9 video games. Not solely that, however the Patriots have allowed solely 29.5 yards per recreation to opposing tight ends and the league-lowest catch fee—solely 51.8%. You can argue that Pitts strains up within the slot as a large receiver a lot of the time- and that’s true—however the information isn’t that a lot better. The Patriots are permitting solely a 57.1% catch fee to opposing vast receivers.
I like Damien Harris on this spot as properly, however I’m going with the new hand. Stevenson discovered the tip zone twice final week, and as of this text there’s nonetheless an opportunity Harris gained’t clear concussion protocol in time for Thursday’s recreation. Stevenson noticed 69% of New England’s rushes and 20% of New England’s targets on Sunday, and he ought to have a very good share of the workload transferring ahead. Atlanta has surrendered eleven touchdowns (9 dashing, two receiving) to opposing working backs in 9 video games of play.
Hunter Henry has seen a team-high 21.3% of the workforce’s pink zone targets this yr. He’s been focused within the pink zone in seven consecutive video games, with two pink zone targets in every of the final two contests. He has seven touchdowns in his final seven video games.
Sure, I’m betting on a kicker. Fairly merely, I feel the Falcons can rating two discipline objectives and it’s plus-money. Koo has kicked two or extra discipline objectives in 5 of 9 video games performed this yr.
Wayne Gallman carried the ball 15 occasions in comparison with Mike Davis’s 4 on Sunday. He additionally caught considered one of his two targets for one more 21 yards. It seems to be to me like there might be a altering of the guard in Atlanta. If Patterson doesn’t go, each working backs will see loads of work. The New England run protection has been pretty beneficiant, permitting 95 dashing yards and 65 passing yards per recreation to opposing working backs. That is on no account a smash spot, however I’d slightly take the +240 for Gallman than +163 for Mike Davis who has solely discovered the tip zone as soon as this yr—regardless of taking part in in each recreation this season.
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