UFC Fight Evening: Hall vs. Strickland
#UFCVegas33 MMA Betting Preview
- DATE: SATURDAY 07/31/21
- BROADCAST: ESPN
- VENUE: UFC APEX
- LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada
- # of MATCHES: 13
MAIN CARD TAKES, PREDICTIONS & BETS
MIDDLEWEIGHT (185 LBS): #8 URIAH HALL (17-9) VS. #11 SEAN STRICKLAND (23-3)
Sean Strickland will get the decision for his first principal occasion and can face #8 Uriah Hall, who has a 4-battle win streak. Hall is recent off of a TKO victory over Anderson Silva and adopted that up with a 17-second TKO win over Chris Weidman.
Strickland is far deserving of this spot and will trigger some waves with a win. Nearly all of this matchup will happen on the ft. I count on each to go for the end early for a press release win.
Hall is extra of a wildcard, and whereas he has ending energy, there are occasions the place he’ll fold pretty quick when he’s harm. On this matchup, I count on Strickland to push the tempo and stroll ahead into the exchanges greater than Hall. Strickland will look to maintain the tempo up by seeking to overwhelm Hall with combos and a mixture of leg kicks. Hall will counter much less typically however with extra intent. Though Strickland will take a punch to land his personal, it’s important to take into account throughout 26 fights that he is solely been completed as soon as.
This battle may deliver some surprises. Each fighters are hittable and convey ending energy. When taking a look at paths to victory, it’s important to give Strickland the sting with wrestling, although each have first rate takedown protection. I do not see them seeking to grapple a lot. On the ft, will probably be about Strickland’s quantity and tempo versus the ability by way of elusive strikes from Hall. Neither man has a lot head motion, so someone will land a battle-altering shot. Hall can have a 3.5-inch attain benefit in his favor, although traditionally will get hit greater than he lands. I give Strickland the slight edge on this one if I’ve to choose sides, based mostly on the sheer inconsistency from Hall through the years. It is powerful to go all-in on a fighter who has gone 4-4 in his final eight fights, not together with the Weidman accident. In these fights, he’s been completed in three of 4 of the losses and has received by way of end in three of the 4 wins alongside the stretch. He is a kill or be killed kind of fighter. Now Strickland has had extra success over the identical timeframe (since 2015) and has gone 8-2 over his final ten, with 4 of these fights ending inside the space. I do just like the probabilities of this one ending underneath 3.5 rounds, and as I stated, I lean Strickland, however Hall all the time has that puncher’s probability.
Weigh-ins: Uriah Hall (185.5) vs. Sean Strickland (185)
Prediction: Sean Strickland
BANTAMWEIGHT (135 LBS): KYUNG HO KANG (17-8) VS. RANI YAHYA (27-10-1)
Kang is making his return after a two-yr absence as a consequence of a damaged orbital and tousled again after his final battle with Pingyuan Liu. “Mr. Excellent” is driving a 3-battle win streak, although his final two fights have been shut break up selections, thankfully entering into his favor. Kang is an distinctive submission fighter, although standing throughout from him will likely be Rani Yahya, who one-ups him because it pertains to a submission resume. Yahya continues to amaze, as he now has 21 of his 27 wins coming by means of submission, together with his final 4 wins, most lately again in March when he submitted Ray Rodriguez within two rounds. Each of those guys are low quantity with the hanging, although the hanging is an enormous part of Kang’s typical gameplan. He ought to have some points right here as Yahya will tighten up the space, seeking to tie up and scramble non-cease. With the small cage and Yahya’s stress, I may see Kang having some points.
Weigh-ins: Kyung Ho Kang (136) vs. Rani Yahya (136)
Prediction: Rani Yahya
WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT (115 LBS): CHEYANNE BUYS (5-2) VS. GLORIA DE PAULA (5-3)
Massive battle for these two. Each had caught some eyes from their DWCS performances however fell flat of their UFC debuts. Buys was closely pissed off by Montserrat Ruiz, who held her down your complete battle whereas peppering pictures whereas protecting her in a headlock the vast majority of the battle. De Paula, who’s an awesome striker, had Jinh Yu Frey catch her off guard a bit and do some sudden grappling, which led to her controlling the higher half of their battle as effectively. For Purchase’s debut, I felt just like the UFC performed a number of packages, constructing her up a bit, which tells me they’d extra funding in her potential to be a fan favourite in a way. I count on each of those two to face and try and get the higher of the 2, however I wouldn’t be shocked if Buys seems to be to take this one all the way down to the mat as a result of hanging means from De Paula. This one in all probability comes all the way down to who controls the place this battle goes more often than not, and I see Buys making changes in her favor, which finally ends up along with her getting no less than two rounds on the playing cards.
Weigh-ins: Cheyanne Buys (116) vs. Gloria de Paula (115.5)
Prediction: Cheyanne Buys
WELTERWEIGHT (170 LBS): NIKLAS STOLZE (12-4) VS. JARED GOODEN (17-6)
Stolze now takes on Jared Gooden in a brief discover matchup after Mounir Lazzez had visa points. Stolze is effectively-rounded, sturdy, and might end his opponent at any second, favoring the chokes. Props to Gooden for stepping up within the substitute spot, as he seems to be to safe his first UFC win after dropping his first two alternatives. Gooden is hard to place away and has nice cardio himself. On this matchup, I see Stolze mixing up the offense and staying a step forward. Gooden made weight on three days’ discover.
Weigh-ins: Jared Gooden (171) vs. Niklas Stolze (170.5)
Prediction: Niklas Stolze
FLYWEIGHT (125 LBS): RYAN BENOIT (10-7) VS. ZARRUKH ADASHEV (3-3)
This can be a rebooked battle from Could after Benoit had a horrible weight minimize and will barely stand on the weigh-in. Benoit is on a troublesome skid, as he’s misplaced three of his final 4. Adashev has his again in opposition to the wall as effectively, and after dropping his first two UFC fights, he has yet another shot right here, or it may result in a pink slip. Adashev has stable hanging, and it may frustrate Benoit. That stated, if he can get Adashev’s timing down early, Benoit may catch him as he has with knockdowns of Sergio Pettis and present champ Brandon Moreno.
Weigh-ins: Zarrukh Adashev (125.5) vs. Ryan Benoit (126)
Prediction: Ryan Benoit
WELTERWEIGHT (170 LBS): BRYAN BARBERENA (15-7) VS. JASON WITT (18-7)
It’s a must to love Bryan Barberena fights. It seems to be like they’ve this one slated to kick off the principle card, and I would not be shocked if we see a end. Neither man is an enormous resolution grinder, and each look to get in there and out as shortly as doable. The issue with Witt is he has a suspect chin. 5 of his seven losses have come by way of knockout, together with his earlier battle, which lasted all of 16 seconds. Now Witt has some submission expertise, however Barberena has just one loss by way of sub on his resume, which occurred 11 years in the past, early on in his profession.
Weigh-ins: Bryan Barberena (170.5) vs. Jason Witt (170.5)
Prediction: Bryan Barberena
PRELIMS TAKES, PREDICTIONS & BETS
WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHT (135 LBS): #15 NICCO MONTANO (4-3) VS. WU YANAN (11-4)
We have by no means seen a run from a fighter after successful a belt within the UFC as we have seen from Montano. This seems to be to be the second chapter, or no matter we wish to name it at this level, of her promising UFC profession as she seems to be to get again on monitor after a tough go. After successful the strap, she was stripped shortly after as a consequence of weight minimize points. Within the time since, she has had seven fights canceled, and one which occurred, which resulted in a choice loss over Julianna Pena, although in that battle, she had her moments. If we see Montano with the skillset for which she is thought, she ought to have minimal points knocking off Wu Yanan, who’s now misplaced three of 4, together with her final two coming into this battle. I count on Yanan to get taken down on this one ultimately, and Montano will go to work on the mat, resulting in her first win since 2017.
Weigh-ins: Nicco Montano (143) vs. Wu Yanan (135.5) **
Prediction: Nicco Montano
Notice: Montano was eight kilos over the restrict. The battle is canceled.
FEATHERWEIGHT (145 LBS): COLLIN ANGLIN (8-1) VS. MELSIK BAGHDASARYAN (5-1)
Two guys are making their UFC debut after time within the Contender Collection. Though it is a massive spot for a few of these newcomers, Melsik should not be phased as he has some boxing and kickboxing expertise earlier than transferring to MMA. Melsik has a 9-2 kickboxing resume and fought within the vivid lights of the Okay-1 World GP three years in the past. Anglin has a chin, and if he can keep away from the early massive pictures from Melsik, he could make this a battle, as we noticed Melsik kinda “soften” as his battle went into the over rounds in his resolution win over Dennis Buzukja final September. I’m nonetheless going to facet with the man with extra fight expertise, and after catching his media obligations this week, he seems to be greater than able to go, paired with some uber confidence on this matchup.
Weigh-ins: Collin Anglin (146) vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan (145.5)
Prediction: Melsik Baghdasaryan
LIGHTWEIGHT (155 LBS): CHRIS GRUETZEMACHER (14-4) VS. RAFA GARCIA (12-1)
Garcia is again after struggling the primary lack of his profession in a brief-discover battle in opposition to a troublesome Nasrat Haqparast, and it’s important to imagine Garcia is hungry and seeking to get his first UFC. I believe he’ll too. It seems like Garcia has been coaching with Trevor Whitman and likewise spent a while with final week’s winner TJ Dillashaw in prep, whereas Gruetzemacher has been a thriller so far as what work he’s placing in at this level. Gruetzemacher got here again after a two-yr layoff and was completed in lower than two minutes versus one other motivated fighter, Alexander Hernandez. Gruetzemacher is 35 now and hasn’t received a battle since April of 2018, and this could possibly be the tail finish of his profession whereas the 26-yr-outdated Garcia is ramping up into his prime. Anticipate an in depth battle early on, with Garcia taking management and dealing his method to the win.
Weigh-ins: Rafa Garcia (154) vs. Chris Gruetzemacher (156)
Prediction: Rafa Garcia
FEATHERWEIGHT (145 LBS): DANNY CHAVEZ (11-4) VS. KAI KAMAKA (8-4)
This ought to be an superior matchup. Each guys will commerce with one of the best of them on the ft, and whereas Kamaka would be the extra technical of the 2 on the ft, Chavez will all the time try and match the amount, with much less accuracy. General, this ought to be Kamaka’s battle to win, but when Chavez executes takedowns as he did in opposition to TJ Brown, I believe he may steal this one. Not invested on this one from a betting perspective, however I am going to facet with the canine in an in depth one.
Weigh-ins: Danny Chavez (145.5) vs. Kai Kamaka (144.5)
Prediction: Danny Chavez
WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT (115 LBS): JINH YU FREY (10-6) VS. ASHLEY YODER (8-7)
Nothing to be ashamed of, Frey misplaced her first two UFC bouts, however in opposition to Kay Hansen and Loma Lookboonmee. She then bought again on monitor and edged out a choice over the debuting Gloria de Paula again in March. Her path to victory in that spot was all about takedowns and management. Though being outstruck on the ft, she had over 9 minutes of management time, which gave the judges sufficient to award her the 29-28 scorecards throughout the board. Sadly for her this go round, she’ll be staring throughout at Ashley Yoder, and Yoder’s bread and butter is the grappling and submission sport. Do not let Yoder’s file idiot you. She’s all the time within the battle and has fought some greater-tier fighters than the previous Invicta champ. Yoder can have a noticeable measurement benefit which ought to help giving her the sting with the grappling and statistically pumps out extra quantity on the ft, whereas Frey has a damaging hanging differential additionally not serving to her trigger. That stated, I’ll facet with Yoder straight up and will not be boxing myself in on any props in what oddsmakers see as a aggressive battle.
Weigh-ins: Jinh Yu Frey (115.5) vs. Ashley Yoder (116)
Prediction: Ashley Yoder
BANTAMWEIGHT (135 LBS): RONNIE LAWRENCE (7-1) VS. TREVIN JONES (13-6)
This battle incorporates a striker vs. a grappler who can strike. Jones goes for the kill whereas Lawrence closes and mauls you with the takedowns. Lawrence had 12 takedowns in his DWCS match and adopted that up in his UFC debut with eight extra takedowns in opposition to Vince Cachero in a battle he owned. Jones can scramble and might stand up from takedowns and will likely be heavy if he finally ends up on high. Lawrence hasn’t given me any causes to fade him fairly but, even in opposition to a sport opponent in Jones. I like Lawrence to grind this one out.
Weigh-ins: Trevin Jones (135) vs. Ronnie Lawrence
Prediction: Ronnie Lawrence
Notice: Fight canceled as a consequence of medical points
WELTERWEIGHT (170 LBS): ORION COSCE (7-0) VS. PHILIP ROWE (7-3)
Cosce arrives undefeated and earns the contract after a rout of Matt Dixon on the DWCS. His official first bout was in opposition to Nicolas Dalby, although it was canceled as a consequence of an harm. The truth that the UFC booked the newcomer in opposition to a man ranked within the high 30 says one thing. Cosce has wonderful cardo and pushes the tempo in his fights, and I see extra of the identical right here in opposition to Rowe. Rowe dropped his debut again in February in opposition to Gabe Inexperienced by way of a transparent resolution and adopted that up by dropping two grappling bouts over the previous few months. I see Cosce with extra methods to win on this matchup, as he ought to have a transparent edge on the mat and can commerce for quarter-hour higher than most. Rowe’s path will likely be protecting management of the space, protecting the battle upright. It seems cash is coming in on the canine, however I don’t see it.
Weigh-ins: Orion Cosce (170.5) vs. Phil Rowe (173.5)
Prediction: Orion Cosce
Notice: Rowe is over the restrict, forfeits 20% of the purse.
- Strickland/Hall UNDER 3.5 rds -115
- Barberena by way of TKO/KO +130
- Garcia vis SUB +250
- Yoder -136
- Cosce -150
FULL CARD PREDICTIONS
- SEAN STRICKLAND defeats URIAH HALL
- RANI YAHYA defeats KYUNG HO KANG
- CHEYANNE BUYS defeats GLORIA DE PAULA
- NIKLAS STOLZE defeats JARED GOODEN
- RYAN BENOIT defeats ZARRUKH ADASHEV
- BRYAN BARBERENA defeats JASON WITT
- NICCO MONTANO defeats WU YANAN
- MELSIK BAGHDASARYAN defeats COLLIN ANGLIN
- RAFA GARCIA defeats CHRIS GRUETZEMACHER
- DANNY CHAVEZ defeats KAI KAMAKA
- ASHLEY YODER defeats JINH YU FREY
- RONNIE LAWRENCE defeats TREVIN JONES
- ORION COSCE defeats PHILIP ROWE
UFC PREDICTION BET SUMMARY
- 2021 predictions: 160-113-5 (59%)
- 2021 wagers: 83-74-2 (53%)
- Predictions: 541-312-16 (63%)
- Wagers: 293-161-8 (65%)
DFS PLAYS & STRATEGIES
- Select energetic fighters. Coupling an energetic fighter on their method to a unanimous resolution will provide you with key factors in your crew. You need the energetic, offensive participant that scores. Key metrics listed here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
- Play the heavyweights. The approximate general end fee within the UFC is 54%. Most weight divisions vary from 40%-60%, whereas the heavyweights push a 75% end fee. You’ll obtain bonus factors for finishes inside the space.
- Strive all the time to incorporate the principle occasion or title fights. 5-spherical fights imply extra time to rack up factors should you decide the precise fighter. In some circumstances, even in case you have the loser, the factors will be greater than a 3-spherical winner.
- Do not get excited and rush a decide based mostly on stats; take into account pattern measurement. Some fighters have restricted fights in comparison with their opponents when taking a look at metrics. Stats could possibly be exaggerated. Do your analysis. Look ahead to spots with debuting fighters as effectively. All the time test the information of the opponents they confronted on their method to the UFC. All the time pull battle tape as effectively. You’d be shocked at what you’ll find.
- Overview strategies of victory. I provide the end charges inside this text, and as you dive in, you’ll be able to examine methodology of victory to methodology of loss for the matchups. For instance, you will discover matchups the place Fighter A has a excessive % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a excessive % of submission losses.
As talked about within the tip sheet above, right here’s my MMA DFS Warmth Chart for UFC Vegas 33. As you’ll be able to see, the chart is ranked based mostly on battle end odds. Fight finishes are the place the factors are in MMA DFS. Take a look on the stack, and we are going to break down the person matchups beneath.
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents; watch your factors rack up shortly. This is my Offensive Output Meter for the cardboard. With this chart, you’ll be able to examine historic fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters taking part Saturday.
Under is the differential for strikes landed vs. strikes absorbed per minute.
Right here is the takedown common per quarter-hour and the opponent’s takedown protection %.
UFC DFS RECOMMENDATIONS
- Fighters that press the motion, land takedowns, and/or excessive end charges matched up in opposition to those who get completed, roster. (see my charts above)
- Fights projected to NOT go to a choice
- Strickland/Hall -168
- Kang/Yahya -108
- Barberena/Witt -215
- Anglin/Baghdasaryan -110
- Gruetzemacher/Garcia -115
- Lawrence/Jones -125
- Cosce/Rowe -175
- For the principle occasion, I like Strickland although he should have an excellent efficiency over Hall to hit worth with a $9300 price ticket. With 5 rounds of labor, Hall can cowl $6900 in a win.
- High-tier fighters to construct round embrace: Barberena, Garcia, Montano
- Mid-tier fighter issues are: Cosce, Lawrence
- Stay ‘canines that might rating:
- Stolze (worth error)
- Yahya (sub probability)
- Hall as talked about (multi-lineups)
Good luck, everybody. I hope to see a few of you cashing after Saturday night time! Follow me on Twitter @Y2CASEY