Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction and odds for Saturday, February 18 (Back Vols as road favorites)

Tennessee guard Zakai Zeigler (5) strikes previous Alabama guard Jaden Bradley (0) throughout a basketball sport between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Alabama Crimson Tide held at Thompson-Boling Area in Knoxville, Tenn., on Wednesday, Feb. 15, 2023.
Kns Vols Bama Hoops

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Tennessee heads to Lexington in an up-and-down stretch of their season. The team lost two straight on last second shots, but then outclassed Alabama at home.

Now the team is at Rupp Arena for a Saturday afternoon showdown against Kentucky, who won outright last month as double digit underdogs in Knoxville. The game was a rockfight with Kentucky doing enough on the offensive glass and the free throw line to win 63-56.

Now the Vols are on the road as small road favorites, are they not getting enough credit this time around?

Let’s check out the odds:

Tennessee vs. Kentucky odds, spread and total

Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction and pick

Tennessee is going to need to do far better on the defensive glass in order to beat Kentucky. The Wildcats grabbed 13 offensive boards in that one, a 40% rate that is better than any team’s season long average, and also got to the line 15 more times.

If Tennessee can clean up some of the extra categories, they should be in decent shape against a middling Kentucky defense that struggles to defend cutting action that is the foundation of the Tennessee offense. The Vols don’t get a ton of penetration, but the Wildcats are porous at defending the rim, bottom third in the nation in field goal percentage allowed at the cup this season.

If Tennessee is able to clean the glass, their defense should limit Kentucky’s offense that is reliant on pull up jumpers and generating second chances. Tennessee’s compact defense is typically elite on the defensive glass (second in SEC play) and is fantastic at forcing turnovers (third).

I think this line has over-adjusted after the Vols lackluster effort last month, so I’ll play against it and take them to cover the small number.

Track all of Reed’s bets at Betstamp HERE!

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