Sports

Scout’s Analysis: Why the Maple Leafs need a defenceman by trade deadline

February 27, 2023

Over the previous a number of weeks I’ve taken a look inside each Canadian NHL franchise. I’ve analyzed their NHL rosters, wage cap conditions, draft capital, and highlighted a few of their prospects.

A few of our readers have loved the depth of the evaluation, whereas others have commented the reads are too lengthy for his or her liking.

It’s unattainable for me to please everybody when diving into tasks of this nature. My objective was to offer readers as a lot of an inside look into what goes into the means of evaluating NHL organizations from a Hockey Operations perspective.

I’ve loved the challenge and need to thank our readers for taking the time to contemplate what I’ve introduced.

READ MORE: VAN | CGY | OTT | MTL | WPG | EDM

With that in thoughts, right here’s a deep dive into the final Canadian franchise in my sequence: the Toronto Maple Leafs.

FORWARD CONTRACTS

Picture courtesy CapFriendly

Notes:

• Tavares has a full no-move clause for the length of his contract.

• Kerfoot’s contract contains a 10-team no-trade checklist.

• Jarnkrok’s deal additionally has a 10-team no-trade included.

DEFENCE CONTRACTS

Picture courtesy CapFriendly

Notes:

• Rielly has a full no-move clause in his contract till 2028. It then turns into a 10-team no-trade checklist.

• Brodie’s no-move clause expires after this season. In the ultimate 12 months of his deal (2023-24) he has a 10-team no-trade clause.

• Holl has a modified no-trade (10-team) clause included in his expiring contract.

GOALIE CONTRACTS

Picture courtesy CapFriendly

LONG TERM INJURY RESERVE

Picture courtesy CapFriendly

NHL FORWARDS

Mitch Marner: Marner is a dynamic scoring ahead who’s utilized in all conditions with the Leafs. There aren’t any secrets and techniques to his sport. He has the capability to take over shifts offensively. He can even frustrate folks with a turnover at key instances in video games. Over the course of his playoff profession he has scored seven targets and 26 assists in 39 video games. The Leafs are hoping he finds one other degree in his sport this spring.

William Nylander: For me, Nylander has been the most polarizing participant on this roster in the previous. Having stated that, I’ve been extra glad along with his physique of labor this season. Nylander may, arguably, be the most gifted participant on this roster. He performs fast and quick. He can even flip defenders inside out off the rush and from under the objective line. Playoffs are a “heavy/onerous” time of 12 months. Nylander scored three targets and 4 assists final spring versus Tampa Bay in the Leafs first-round loss. I’m greater than glad with that sort of offence, however I’m additionally on the lookout for him to be extra of a constant distraction and struggle by means of extra checks this playoff season.

John Tavares: The Leafs captain is on tempo for round 80 factors. He’s excellent in the face-off circle, successful practically 58% per cent of his attracts. He’s proficient at tipping pucks from the deep slot on the power-play and leverages nicely round the crease to increase performs offensively. Tavares has by no means been an open ice burner at the NHL degree. Shifting him to the wing, with the current acquisition of Ryan O’Reilly, just isn’t the finish of the world for the participant. He doesn’t have to trace the full 200 toes as typically, and might nonetheless slide into the face-off circle to take attracts.

Auston Matthews: His objective scoring is down this 12 months, and he has missed a few video games with damage, however an argument might be made he’s taking part in his greatest all-round hockey for the Leafs. His aspect is his shot. He’s onerous to deal with off the rush and shifting off the wall into excessive hazard scoring areas in the offensive zone. Matthews has a formidable 71 shot blocks on the 12 months, which leads the Leafs forwards and is third on the group total. Contemplating he doesn’t penalty kill, it’s a stat that speaks to his elevated consideration to element in the defensive zone. He’s performed a a lot heavier sport this season total. Beginning with the puck issues to coaches and Matthews wins 54 per cent of his face-offs.

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Michael Bunting: There are nights I like his emotion and drive. There are additionally nights I want he was much less animated and extra centered shift to shift. He might be onerous to play in opposition to and a distraction for opponents. Generally he appears to be like for calls that aren’t coming from officers (for a number of causes). At the finish of the day I might slightly speak a participant down emotionally, in comparison with having to gentle a hearth underneath him to get him going. Bunting advantages from taking part in an elevated position with the Leafs, however his linemates additionally profit kind his “rat” fashion. The group wants his sport to go to a different degree in playoffs.

Calle Jarnkrok: At instances I overlook that Jarnkrok is a veteran NHL participant who’s 31 years outdated and signed to a contract that ends when he might be nearing 35. He’s a youthful 31-year-old. He performs fast and might be trusted in a number of roles. Jarnkrok is a streaky contributor offensively and he appears to provide his factors in bunches. His 12 targets and 15 assists have come from averaging 14 minutes of ice time and being deployed in all conditions. He’s a gentle participant who doesn’t convey a lot bump to his sport or block photographs. Jarnkrok has spent a while in the Leafs high six, however for my part he’s greatest outlined as a center six ahead.

Alexander Kerfoot: Kerfoot is a pending UFA who’s counting $3.5 million in opposition to the cap this season. He averages simply shy of quarter-hour of ice time and is utilized in all conditions (restricted power-play). Kerfoot performs fast and quick. He can disrupt opponents when he tracks up ice shortly and doesn’t enable them to arrange their escape. What he doesn’t do is take pucks to the onerous areas on his personal. He retains, actually, 90 per cent of his time on the perimeter. He’s producing secondary offence (seven targets, 19 assists). Kerfoot is participant I might look to maneuver at the deadline and exchange him with a heavier, extra highly effective, participant. It received’t be straightforward, nonetheless. Kerfoot’s contract is armed with a modified no-trade (10-team) clause.

Pierre Engvall: Engvall is on an expiring contract and averages 13 minutes per sport. He’s largely used at even power and the second power-play unit, with some minimal contribution on the penalty kill. Engvall is a nice skater for this stature (6-foot-5, 214 kilos), however he’s not bodily (39 hits) and doesn’t sacrifice himself blocking photographs (solely 5 on the 12 months!). He’s chipped in some secondary offence (12 targets, 9 assists) and been credited with 98 photographs on objective. The Leafs’ playoff success is likely to be determined by their depth. They need to get extra bump and sacrifice out of gamers like Engvall come the hardest time of the 12 months.

David Kampf: The group doesn’t require Kampf to hold a lot of the load offensively, however every so often he has proven he can sneak up and produce a well timed objective. What Kampf does greatest is win face-offs (53 per cent), defend responsibly, and match-up versus opponents’ middle- (or top-) six forwards. He’s a reliable third line ahead who averages quarter-hour of ice. Kampf is used at even power and one in every of the major penalty killing items. He performs to a dependable id as a two-way and, at instances, leaning defensive ahead.

Noel Acciari: Since being acquired from St. Louis, Acciari is averaging 13 minutes of ice and being deployed at even power and the penalty kill. He has 19 hits in 5 video games. He’s simply establishing himself as the most bodily participant on the roster and taking part in to his id. Acciari is a good addition for the Leafs. He doesn’t need to contribute offence in his position. His heavy fashion and shot blocking ought to profit the group additional in playoffs. The Leafs are a tougher group to play in opposition to with Acciari in the lineup. He’s on an expiring contract that pays him $1.25 million.

Zach Aston-Reese: Aston-Reese can also be a pending UFA at the conclusion of the season, and averaging 11 minutes of ice time being deployed at even power and the penalty kill. Earlier than the arrival of Acciari, Aston-Reese led the Leafs forwards in hits. The mix of these two offers the group a fourth line that identifies as a bodily group that’s keen to pay the value in the trenches.

Watch Hockey Central’s trade deadline show on Sportsnet

Sportsnet’s wall-to-wall coverage of the NHL trade deadline can be seen in a special edition of Hockey Central on March 3, beginning at 10 a.m. ET / 7 a.m. PT. Watch the show on Sportsnet or stream on SN NOW.

Stream Hockey Central’s trade deadline show on SN NOW
Trade tracker
30 NHL trade candidates to observe

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12TH/13TH FORWARDS

The Leafs have a vary of gamers who come out and in of the lineup. A participant like Wayne Simmonds is inserted after they really feel they need one other layer of physicality. Pontus Holmberg has been a good shock and proven he can chip in some offence whereas offering some power with ability. Bobby McMann didn’t look misplaced throughout his call-up and was snake bitten round the internet. Alex Steeves is a participant who can present power, compete, and probably some offence. Dryden Hunt performs a straight ahead fashion. He can also lengthen performs in the offensive zone and exhibits willingness to battle for pucks and interact bodily.

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NHL DEFENCEMEN

Morgan Rielly: Rielly is a part of the Leafs’ management group. He averages a affordable 22:32 of ice time and is utilized in all conditions. On the power-play he leans distributor greater than shooter. Defensively, I describe him as “common plus”. He’s not overly bodily and doesn’t block a ton of photographs (47 hits, 59 shot blocks), however Rielly leads the Leafs’ defence offensively with two targets and 27 assists and he’s directed 87 photographs on objective. Rielly is signed to an extension that carries a very affordable $7.5 million cap hit. He’s the sort of participant who isn’t distinctive in anyone class, however superb in most.

Mark Giordano: The grizzled veteran averages 19:30 of ice time per sport and matches up in opposition to high forwards on a nightly foundation. He isn’t a burner. He’s a mean plus skater who sometimes will get rotated in his zone, leading to drained legs from having to begin/cease/regroup. There isn’t any questioning his compete and a focus to element. His management in the dressing room, on the highway, and at apply is invaluable. Giordano has solely been credited with 43 hits this season, however he’s blocked 113 photographs. It’s getting near the finish for Giordano. He’ll empty the tank this spring in playoffs, assured.

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Rasmus Sandin: Sandin is simply 22 years outdated (turning 23 subsequent month) and he’s nonetheless creating at the NHL degree. Certainly one of the extra stunning statistics on the Leafs roster belongs to Sandin, who’s second amongst the defencemen with 113 hits. It’s the precise reverse statistic in comparison with Giordano. Sandin has 57 shot blocks and averages 18 minutes of ice skating at even power and the power-play. He’s clearly a distributor greater than a shooter, however is able to snapping a puck dwelling from the flank – or center of the excessive slot every so often. I don’t love his defending. I typically really feel his routes/angling is off, leading to an excessive amount of straightforward ice for opponents. He additionally tends to show pucks over in key areas of the ice (all younger NHL defenders undergo the identical rising pains). Sandin is a two-way/transitional defender by definition. He’s signed by means of 2023-24 to a contract that pays him $1.4 million in opposition to the cap. If he’s going for use for 18-plus minutes in playoffs, Sandin higher be ready to proceed to interact bodily, and extra importantly handle pucks the complete sport.

Timothy Liljegren: Liljegren is an instance of a participant who’s enhancing with extra reps at the NHL degree. His hockey mind has been a query mark for me in the previous when he appeared to get caught between making an attempt to contribute offensively, pinching right down to hold pucks alive, and sadly turning pucks over far too typically. This season, although, and he’s a lot improved throughout the board. Liljegren averages simply shy of 19 minutes per sport at even power and the penalty-kill. He’s a incredible skater who’s displaying some push again with 82 hits and 72 shot blocks. In brief, he’s far more reliable. Liljegren is signed to the very same contract as Sandin. For my part he’s clearly outlined as a two-way defenceman who can contribute some secondary offence (5 targets and 10 assists), however elects to maintain his sport far more easy and secure. He’s found out the way to be a full-time NHL defender.

Justin Holl: There have been instances in the previous the place I used to be essential of Holl. His sport ranged wildly, particularly in the playoffs versus Tampa Bay final spring. This season Holl has been extra constant total and is third on the Leafs blue line averaging 21 minutes per sport. The 6-foot-4, 210-pound defender has been credited with 116 hits and 100 shot blocks. When Holl retains issues easy with the puck, and retains the play in entrance of him in all three zones, he has confirmed to be extra reliable. Lately, nonetheless, he did undergo by means of a little bit of a tough patch, leading to a wholesome scratch. Sheldon Keefe clearly likes Holl as a participant. He stands up for him when questioned about Holl’s defending, or his capability to match-up in opposition to high six opponents. Holl is on an expiring contract that carries a cap hit of $2 million. Much less equals extra with Holl.

T.J. Brodie: Brodie is the Leafs’ swiss-army knife. He can play either side, log massive minutes at even power and the penalty-kill, and match up in opposition to high traces at dwelling and on the highway. He quietly goes about his enterprise.

Brodie is averaging 21 minutes per sport. He’s an “space” defender who doesn’t convey a lot bump to the sport (29 hits). He’s a superb skater who can chase down opponents off dump-ins, and retrieve and transfer pucks up ice effectively. He additionally will get in the lane to dam photographs (66). Brodie might be leaned on closely by the Leafs come spring. He has yet another 12 months on his contract with a $5 million cap hit.

Conor Timmins: Timmins has confirmed to be a sound acquisition for the Leafs. The 6-foot-2, 185-pound proper shot defender has contributed when in the lineup. He offers the group some added depth. Timmins is a two-way defender who can handle pucks on one in every of the power-play items. He’s concerned defensively, bumping opponents and blocking photographs. I’m unsure he’s an choice to offer common minutes come playoffs, however he can actually match up in a lowered position versus backside six opponents. Timmins has signed a two-year extension paying him $1.1 million beginning subsequent season.

Jordie Benn: Benn was introduced in to offer some veteran depth. He’s suffered by means of some accidents and solely skated in 12 video games up to now. His contract is because of expire at the finish of the season ($750,000). If the Leafs need to make a deal for an additional defenceman, and require some cap reduction, Benn is likely to be the participant the group strikes out, they usually did waive him over the weekend.

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NHL GOALIES

Ilya Samsonov: Samsonov is clearly the goalie the Leafs could be leaning on if playoffs began at the moment. He’s had a stable season total and is tied for tenth in NHL save share. His 2.30 goals-against common ranks seventh in the league. Total, I’ve acknowledged higher crease composure this season from Samsonov. In the previous, particularly in excessive leverage video games, he was too busy and would scramble exterior his posts too typically (dropping his internet in the course of). It has creeped into his sport a bit not too long ago, however to not the extent it has in the previous.

Playoffs might be strain packed, and it’s assured the Spherical 1 opponent in the different internet might be Andrei Vasilevskiy from Tampa Bay. The Leafs’ goalies haven’t needed to steal video games in the common season, however Samsonov will seemingly must every so often in the playoffs to ensure that the group to have success. Samsonov is a pending RFA with a qualifying provide is about at $1.8 million this low season, however he has arbitration rights. If the Leafs go on a run this spring with Samsonov in internet, he’ll price them greater than $1.8 million on his subsequent deal.

Matt Murray: Murray has had his share of accidents once more this season and solely performed 19 video games. Early in the season I appreciated the look of his sport. He was massive in the internet, squared up nicely, and had his rebound management so as. However when the sport will get shifting east/west in his zone he has moments the place he lags behind, particularly if pucks spill off his physique and he’s pressured to make desperation stops off to his aspect. I’m unsure the place he’s with damage, however he has undoubtedly misplaced the internet to Samsonov when he comes again. Murray’s stats have been respectable (2.73 GAA, .911 SV%). He has one other 12 months left on his contract, costing the Leafs $4.687 million in opposition to their cap. I’m prepared to maneuver off Murray this summer season, however that’s a dialog for an additional day.

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Erik Kallgren: Kallgren has had a powerful 12 months. His stats in the AHL (3.25 GAA, .885 SV%) has allowed Joseph Woll to go proper previous him on the Leafs depth chart. Toronto has Dennis Hildeby underneath contract, and he’s taking part in for Farjestad in Sweden’s SHL, the place he has a 2.08 GAA and .911 save share. Hildeby is more likely to arrive in Toronto to play for the Marlies subsequent fall. With that, and since Kallgren is a pending RFA, I don’t see Toronto qualifying him this low season.

Joseph Woll: Woll was an AHL all-star this winter and his statistics inform the story (2.31 GAA, .931 SV%). He’s presently backing up Samsonov on the Leafs roster. Woll has labored onerous on his sport over the years. The 6-foot-2, 198-pound goalie performs a butterfly/hybrid fashion and he appears to be like able to problem for a full-time again up position subsequent fall. Woll is signed by means of 2024-25) with a cap hit of simply $766,667.

TWO PROSPECTS

Right here’s a take a look at two of Toronto’s high prospects and the way they’ve been trending. These are the scouting playing cards I’ve generated for the two gamers based mostly off my viewings of them:

Card through Jason Bukala’s Professional Hockey Group

TORONTO’S NEED TO ADD A DEFENCEMAN

It’s my private opinion that the Leafs are well-positioned up entrance, particularly following the additions of Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari.

They now need to spherical out their roster with one other defenceman. The group has bought the most out of their present group, however playoffs current (as they know) a completely different set of challenges. They’ve the cap house so as to add, too. The difficulty turns into which property they’re keen to surrender in one other trade to bolster their lineup, and enhance their likelihood at playoff success this spring.

POTENTIAL TARGETS

Jake McCabe: The left shot defenceman from the Chicago Blackhawks is greatest outlined as a two-way blueliner. He’s been credited with 122 hits, 115 blocked photographs and would instantly grow to be the chief in each classes with the Leafs. His cap hit is $4 million and his contract has time period (signed by means of 2024-25). McCabe must agree to come back to Toronto since he has a modified no trade (seven-team) clause in his deal.

Mattias Ekholm: Ekholm is one in every of the older choices on this checklist as he turns 33 in Might. He additionally has time period left on his present contract that prices $6.2 million in opposition to the cap and expires at the conclusion of the 2025-26 season. He’s utilized in all conditions in Nashville, however I don’t see him contributing on the power-play in Toronto. Ekholm is an environment friendly defender who has vary to remove house. He additionally will get in the lane to dam photographs. Ekholm has by no means been a “fairly” participant to observe in movement, however he will get in every single place on time. He’s been a part of the management group in Nashville for a number of years.

Jakob Chychrun: The Leafs have the cap house so as to add Chychrun to their roster. The query will come right down to price. Chychrun is a two-way defenceman who can add a layer offensively by becoming a member of the rush. He’s a mean defender (typically common plus). He skates very nicely, has good dimension, and isn’t shy about leaning on opponents and blocking photographs. Nearly all of his ice time comes at even power and the power-play. He has a sharp launch from the flank and the center of the ice. He’s the youngest participant on this checklist (turning 25 in March) and the one with the most upside shifting ahead. His present contract could be very inexpensive ($4.6 million) and doesn’t expire till the finish of the 2024-25 season.

POTENTIAL COST TO ACQUIRE

TORONTO TRADES: 2025 first-rounder, 2024 fourth-rounder, Topi Niemela
CHICAGO TRADES: Jake McCabe

Notice: Blackhawks retain 50 per cent of McCabe’s contract. That retention is as a lot about future price certainty for the Leafs as it’s about saving cash at the deadline and doubtlessly including one other depth participant elsewhere in the lineup. In the event that they determine they don’t need the Blackhawks to retain any of McCabe’s wage, the Leafs would take the fourth-round choose off the desk on this deal. Chicago would have two first-round picks on their draft board in every of the subsequent three drafts in the event that they agreed to this transaction.

TORONTO TRADES: 2024 first-round choose, Topi Niemela
NASHVILLE TRADES: Mattias Ekholm

Notice: Nashville retains 30 per cent of Ekholm’s contract.

TORONTO TRADES: Matthew Knies, Rasmus Sandin, 2024 fourth-round choose, Ottawa’s 2024 seventh-round choose
ARIZONA TRADES: Jakob Chychrun, Nick Bjugstad

Notice: Arizona retains 50 per cent of Chychrun’s contract. Bjugstad is a 6-foot-6, 207-pound proper shot ahead who can play each the center and the wing. He averages 17 minutes of ice time per sport and can be utilized in all conditions (if required). Extra importantly, for my part, he brings an additional layer of physicality to the backside of the Leafs lineup. Bjugstad has been credited with 119 hits to this point this 12 months. He’s on an expiring contract, too.

Extra from Sportsnet

30 NHL trade candidates to observe forward of the deadline

Fast Shifts: Maple Leafs underneath new strain to trade for defenceman

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