Sports

Scout’s Analysis: How the Montreal Canadiens should approach trade deadline

February 7, 2023

As we proceed our collection analyzing the organizational depth, wage cap state of affairs, and future draft capital of Canadian NHL golf equipment, we now transfer on to the Montreal Canadiens.

The Canadiens are struggling by means of some rising pains however the future seems brilliant in Montreal.

Right here’s a have a look at the Montreal Canadiens:

ROSTER AND SALARY CAP

Visible courtesy CapFriendly.com

Notes: Nick Suzuki turns into an unrestricted free agent at the finish of the 2029-30 season; Josh Anderson turns into an unrestricted free agent at the finish of the 2027-28 season. Anderson’s modified no-trade clause is an eight-team listing by means of 2024-25, then turns into a five-team listing; Evgenii Dadonov’s contract has a 10-team no-trade clause.

Visible courtesy CapFriendly.com

Notes: Mike Matheson’s contract has an eight-team no-trade clause; Joel Edmundson’s contract has a 10-team no-trade clause.

Visible courtesy CapFriendly.com

Notes: Brendan Gallagher has a six-team no-trade listing; Jonathan Drouin has a three-team no-trade clause.

Visible courtesy CapFriendly.com

Notes: Carey Price has a full no-move clause; Sean Monahan has a 10-team no-trade clause.

DEAD CAP

Visible courtesy CapFriendly.com

DRAFT GRID

Visible courtesy CapFriendly.com

Notice: The Canadiens are flush with draft capital shifting ahead. The 2023 NHL Draft will present the Canadiens with additional alternatives so as to add to their deep prospect pool. The Florida Panthers’ first-round choose in 2023 shouldn’t be lottery protected — which means if the Panthers end exterior the playoffs the Canadiens will probably be assured two alternatives in the very high half of the draft. At this stage of the season, it seems the Canadiens may have three picks in the high 40 of the 2023 draft

NHL FORWARDS

Nick Suzuki: The newly minted captain of the Montreal Canadiens is the excellent character to guide this group shifting ahead. He leads by instance and chooses his phrases correctly when required.

Suzuki has scored 16 targets and 24 assists. He averages simply over 21 minutes of time on ice, per sport, and skates in all conditions. An outlier, statistically, is his plus/minus ranking of minus-15 – which is extra indicative of the ebbs and flows the workforce has gone by means of this 12 months and never his lack of element as a participant.

Suzuki is a highly-skilled, albeit cerebral, heart. I’d wish to see an enchancment in the face-off circle, the place he’s at present at a 48.55 per cent success charge. He’s signed to a contract that should age properly, with a $7.875 million by means of the 2029-30 season.

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Cole Caufield: Earlier than his season was shut down attributable to shoulder surgical procedure, Caufield was taking part in to his id. He’s a purpose scorer and an elite shooter. Caufield scored 26 targets and 10 assists earlier than being shut down. He was averaging over 18 minutes of time on ice at even power and the power-play. He doesn’t kill penalties.

There will probably be instances, all through the season, when his total element will vary. He’s not the sort of participant who may be trusted in key defensive eventualities however he has the potential to sometime turn into 50 purpose scorer as the workforce matures.

Kirby Dach: Dach is simply 21 years outdated and he has already performed over 200 NHL video games. General, his sport is trending in the proper route. The theme of this workforce is “rising pains” and Dach will proceed to undergo his share of ups and downs. Having stated that, he has already eclipsed his profession excessive in factors and will eclipse 50 factors for the first time in his profession.

Dach has scored 11 targets and 22 assists. He averages simply over 18 minutes time on ice, with the bulk of his time coming at even power and the energy play. Practically half of his factors (5 targets and 9 assists) have come on the energy play. His plus/minus ranking of minus-6 is a big enchancment from his time in Chicago. Dach can play each heart and the wing, giving the Canadiens some roster flexibility. He will probably be a part of the Canadiens core as the workforce evolves.

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Christian Dvorak: Dvorak is an fascinating dialog. On the floor I can see how Montreal followers anticipate extra out of his sport. However there may be greater than meets the eye when dissecting Dvorak’s play. He averages round 17 minutes of time on ice and is utilized in all conditions. He wins 52 per cent of his face-offs. His tempo is sound. On the puck, and away from the play, his effort is dependable. His routes, defending in his zone and on the penalty kill, could possibly be higher timed and executed — there are situations he finally ends up on the mistaken angle making an attempt to include opponents.

Dvorak has scored seven targets and 13 assists. He solely has 4 penalty minutes. His wage of $4.5 million is inexpensive for yet one more 12 months earlier than he turns into an unrestricted free agent, however he’s solely on tempo for round 30 factors which is just too costly for what Montreal will get in return. I’m sitting on the fence as as to whether or not he’s a part of the huge image past subsequent season. If he’s, it gained’t be at his present wage.

Josh Anderson: Anderson is an influence ahead who’s on tempo for a 20-goal season. He performs with tempo and he’s heavy in the trenches. Though he extends performs, Anderson is actually not a playmaker or distributor. He’s signed by means of 2027-28 and has an eight-team no-trade listing in his contract.

Is he too costly for his position at $5.5 million? It’s positively debatable. If his cap hit began with a 4 I feel individuals could be extra snug. Anderson averages simply over 16 minutes time on ice and is utilized in all conditions. He’s second amongst the ahead group with 100 hits. His position has worth. Not having him in the lineup would put extra bodily stress on different gamers.

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Evgenii Dadonov: Dadonov is on an expiring contract with a cap hit of $5 million. He averages simply over 14 minutes per sport however his total affect has been minimal with simply 4 targets and 9 assists. If a workforce calls on Dadonov the Canadiens should retain some wage shifting him out. It will be like Montreal is buying a draft choose by retaining wage. Dadonov has the proper to veto a trade to a workforce he doesn’t need to go to. He can submit his personal 10-team no-trade listing.

Mike Hoffman: Hoffman’s offensive numbers have been on the decline for a number of seasons in a row. He scored 17 targets and 19 assists for the St. Louis Blues earlier than arriving in Montreal in 2021-22. Probably the most spectacular statistic, from his time with the Blues, was his plus/minus ranking when he was a plus-2. He hasn’t scored sufficient in Montreal. He’s 9 targets and 9 assists this season have him on tempo for round 15 targets. His defensive consciousness and off-the-puck effort is irritating to observe at instances. He’s signed by means of subsequent season. His cap hit is $4.5 million however his precise money is $5 million for 2023-24. If a contending workforce is on the lookout for a shooter so as to add to their lineup, and the numbers add up in the Canadiens favour, I’d positively transfer Hoffman in a deal.

Michael Pezzetta: Pezzetta is a depth ahead who performs with power and brings a bodily component. He’s fast to house and could be a distraction. Opponents positively have to concentrate on him when he’s on the ice and monitoring the play. He’s ending his checks in any respect prices. He leads the Montreal forwards with 112 hits, regardless of solely taking part in 32 video games. Contemplating Pezzetta solely averages 8:42 minutes per sport it’s an much more spectacular statistic. He’s additionally chipped in offensively with three targets and three assists. I respect how Pezzetta performs the sport. He is aware of his position.

Rem Pitlick: Pitlick is a bottom-six ahead at even power however he can slide into the second power-play unit. If required, he can often be utilized in a top-six position (attributable to an damage for instance). Pitlick is a participant who may be moved up and down from the AHL, when the workforce is wholesome. He’s priceless to the group however doesn’t venture as a long-term match as this group matures. The actual fact his wage pays him $1.1 million in the NHL and AHL costs him out of the marketplace for most groups. Pitlick has scored three targets and two assists in 21 video games this 12 months. He averages 12 minutes per sport. His ice time comes at even power and the second power-play unit.

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Rafael Harvey-Pinard: Harvey-Pinard has impressed me together with his effort and try and play with dependable element in all three zones. He’s solely performed seven video games however he’s contributed 5 targets and one help. He’s not huge at five-foot-nine and 170 kilos, however he’s fast to house, competes to win pucks and goes to the internet space on the lookout for suggestions and rebounds. Harvey-Pinard deserves an extended look this season. He’s earned the alternative.

SICK BAY — INJURED RESERVE

Jake Evans: A two-way ahead who performs a bottom-six position. Averages 14 minutes of time on ice per sport at even power and the penalty kill. Wins simply shy of 52 per cent of his face-offs. Has struggled to stay wholesome for a whole season. Signed by means of 2024-25 with a cap hit of $1.7 million. Doesn’t play with sufficient presence in my view.

Jonathan Drouin: He’s an unrestricted free agent after this season. I’m not privy to what’s occurring with Drouin behind the scenes, off the ice. Clearly, his profession, thus far hasn’t been a easy experience. Generally it’s extra about the particular person than the sport. I’m unsure the place issues go for Drouin from right here.

Joel Armia: I believed he had turned the nook a couple of years in the past, and could possibly be monitoring to (lastly) play to a constant id. The story of his profession, relationship again to when he was a prospect, is that he can’t appear to string collectively seasons that look the similar. He’s six-foot-four and 218 kilos however solely has 28 hits on the season! His three targets and 4 assists don’t make up for his lack of constant pushback and presence.

Brendan Gallagher: I respect what Gallagher has contributed to the group. He’s a coronary heart and soul participant who leads by instance. Gallagher has additionally been a part of the Canadiens management group for years. This contract shouldn’t be growing old nicely although. His cap hit is $6 million by means of 2026-27 however he is because of make $17 million in precise money the subsequent two seasons. That’s a ton of dough for a participant who has solely scored 25 targets and 31 assists in his final 116 video games performed and is struggling to remain wholesome at this stage of his profession. Gallagher’s contract features a six-team no-trade listing.

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Juraj Slafkovsky: It’s going to take time. I witnessed Slafkovsky taking pucks to the center of the ice and never being conscious of opponents under the purpose line early this season at the Buffalo Sabres rookie match. Quick ahead to the common season and Slafkovsky was caught together with his head down, at the NHL stage, a number of instances. The facility ahead scored 4 targets and 6 assists and averaged simply over 12 minutes of ice time earlier than happening with a lower-body damage.

Sean Monahan: If Monahan returns to the Canadiens lineup wholesome, and contributes near what he had earlier than being injured in December — when he had six targets and 11 assists in 25 video games — he could possibly be coveted by a contending workforce trying so as to add veteran depth at the heart ice place. Monahan averages 55 per cent in the face-off dot and coaches need their groups to begin with the puck in all three zones. Monahan is the sort of participant who can be utilized in a wide range of roles. He has averaged 17 minutes per sport and has been deployed in all conditions throughout his time in Montreal.

Paul Byron: Nothing new to report on Byron. He hasn’t performed this 12 months and his contract is because of expire at the finish of the season. He stays on LTIR.

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NHL DEFENCEMAN

Mike Matheson: His return residence hasn’t been a easy experience. Matheson has been coping with accidents most of the season and solely skated in 17 video games as of the All-Star break. When he’s in the lineup he eats up minutes – averaging over 23 minutes per sport. Matheson is utilized in all conditions and has contributed one purpose and 7 assists. He’s an elite skater who can lead or be part of the rush. At instances much less could be extra from Matheson. He competes and desires to make a distinction but in addition turns pucks over in the mistaken areas of the ice often. Matheson is signed by means of 2026-27 with a cap hit of $4.875 million. He has an eight-team no-trade clause in his contract.

David Savard: Savard is a veteran defender who’s logging over 22 onerous minutes each evening. He matches up in opposition to high opponents at even power and on the penalty kill. He’s sixth in the league with 114 blocked pictures. There’s nothing flashy about his sport. He’s a mean skater however he manages the sport nicely and will get in the lanes together with his measurement at six-foot-two and 229 kilos. Savard is signed by means of 2024-25 and his contract is inexpensive at $3.5 million per season. Groups will ask about his availability. Savard doesn’t have trade safety in his contract.

Joel Edmundson: Edmundson is simply 29 years outdated. He’s a veteran presence on the again finish for the Habs. He’s used at even power and the penalty kill. Like Savard, there aren’t any straightforward minutes for Edmundson. He’s second on the Canadiens and tenth league-wide with 110 shot blocks. Edmundson is a mean skater who depends on sound positioning and his size at six-foot-four and 215 kilos in the defensive zone.

Some critics will critique his plus/minus and say Edmundson’s a poor defender however it might be short-sighted to take action. He could be a pleasant addition to a contending workforce as a participant who might match up in opposition to middle-six opponents and take a few of the heavy lifting off of the high 4. His title has been circulating in trade rumours. Edmundson has yet one more 12 months left on his present contract with a $3.5 million common annual worth. His deal features a 10-team no-trade clause.

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Arber Xhekaj: Has anybody been extra enjoyable to observe this 12 months in Montreal than Xhekaj? The undrafted defender has willed his method to the NHL. He’s averaging quarter-hour per sport and his ice time comes, primarily, at even power and the second power-play unit. Xhekaj has chipped in 5 targets and eight assists. It goes with out saying he has asserted himself bodily. Xhekaj leads Montreal with 154 hits. He’s let or not it’s recognized he’ll arise for his teammates. Xhekaj additionally has 10 fights this season. He’s on his entry-level deal. There are nights he will get caught not shifting his ft fast sufficient under the hash marks in his zone, however total, his defending has been fairly stable for a rookie NHL defender. The actual fact he makes a superb first cross and may handle the play on the second power-play unit can also be a bonus.

Johnathan Kovacevic: Montreal is getting all they will out of Kovacevic. He was claimed on waivers from Winnipeg on Oct. 8. He’s comparatively younger at 25, a right-shot, and he’s rangy at six-foot-four, 208 kilos. There’s not a ton of flash to his sport. He retains issues easy with the puck. On straight strains his skating is average-plus for the NHL. The place he does get into some hassle is together with his small space agility/tight turns/ bounce to house. Kovacevic is averaging simply over 14 minutes per sport. He’s used at even power and on one in every of the penalty-killing models. He’s signed by means of 2024-25 and his cap hit is a modest $767,000.

Jordan Harris: Harris is maturing earlier than our eyes. Popping out of school, he’s a 22-year-old NHL rookie. He’s not big in stature at five-foot-11 and 180 kilos however he’s not shy about getting in lanes to dam pictures and he additionally has some bump to his sport bodily. Harris is a personality child who has the potential to be a future chief. There will probably be some hindrances alongside the approach. Montreal’s endurance will probably be rewarded with Harris as he continues to mature. Harris averages 18 minutes of time on ice per sport and is deployed at even power and the penalty kill. He’s a cellular, two-way NHL defenceman. His contract will probably be fascinating to watch. Harris is a pending Group 2 RFA this summer season. His present deal pays him a base of $842,000 however escalates with bonuses to $1.137 million.

Justin Barron: It’s a small pattern measurement of simply 14 video games in a Canadiens uniform and it’s going to take a while to mature into an NHL defender however Barron has had a pleasant season at the AHL stage with Laval with seven targets and 9 assists in 25 video games. With the Canadiens he has often proven what he’s able to with the puck. Barron tasks to be a two-way/considerably transitional “D” who can handle the puck on one in every of the energy play models. His element and defence should proceed to evolve. Barron is a part of an thrilling core of younger defenceman in the Montreal pipeline. He’s on his entry-level contract. It expires at the finish of subsequent season, resulting in Barron turning into an RFA in the summer season of 2024.

Chris Wideman: Wideman is a helpful veteran who’s a little bit of a “swiss military knife” for Montreal. He was lately taking shifts at ahead as the Canadiens navigate some damage points with their ahead group. I have a look at Wideman as an inexpensive “security blanket” for Montreal. He can skate at the NHL stage, competes, and may contribute on one in every of the energy play models as a distributor. Together with his wage of $763,000, Montreal can afford to maneuver him out and in of the lineup when required.

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SICK BAY — INJURED RESERVE

Kaiden Guhle: Earlier than happening with damage Guhle was displaying to Montreal followers, his coaches and Canadiens administration what to anticipate in the future. He was averaging virtually 22 minutes per sport. Guhle is one in every of my favorite younger NHL defencemen. I’m not sugarcoating my bias. He can do all of it. Guhle is a unbelievable skater, competes, performs bodily, gives secondary offence, and can be utilized in all conditions. Montreal has some excellent younger prospects. I put Guhle at the high of that listing proper now.

NHL GOALIES

Sam Montembeault: I’m not embarrassed to say I’ve a bias on the subject of Montembeault as nicely. Once I was in Florida, we chosen him in the third spherical of the 2015 NHL Draft. Goalies usually take time to develop and Montembeault isn’t any exception. He’s trying increasingly assured in current weeks. Montreal claimed him off waivers on Oct. 2, 2021. He’s now, at worst, a stable No. 2 NHL goalie and doubtlessly a No. 1B.

The six-foot-three, 214-pound goaltender performs a butterfly/athletic type. He strikes very nicely laterally. One in all my considerations has all the time been his capability to “begin on time” and I’m persevering with to watch his preparation. Groups don’t need to chase the sport early. He wants to ensure he is able to make the first save each evening. Montembault is signed by means of subsequent season and his cap hit is $1 million.

Jake Allen: There are nights that Allen has been unbelievable for Montreal this season. There have additionally been nights that he struggled. I do know it sounds easy, however I can’t describe it another approach. His stats solely inform a few of the story with a 3.85 goals-against common and .891 save share. The workforce in entrance of Allen is younger they usually surrender extra grade “A” probabilities than numerous groups in the league.

Allen is a veteran goalie who can help with bringing alongside Montembeault. He’s higher fitted to low-end No. 1B responsibility (35 video games) than No. 1 responsibility (52 video games). Allen is signed by means of 2024-25 and his contract carries a cap hit of $3.85 million. If somebody referred to as on him I would definitely pay attention, however Montreal would then want so as to add a veteran goalie in the low season. Generally it’s higher to remain the course with what you might have.

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SICK BAY — INJURED RESERVE

Carey Value: I don’t have any inside info on Value. He was one in every of the NHL’s high goalies for a number of seasons. He’s tried to rehab his knee damage and issues simply haven’t gone his approach. Value is securely on LTIR.

PROSPECT UPDATE

Owen Beck: The final couple of months have been a whirlwind for Beck. He was the final minimize out of Staff Canada’s World Junior Staff coaching camp however was recalled after Colton Dach went down with an damage. Beck was traded from Mississauga to Peterborough at the OHL trade deadline. He additionally skated in his first NHL sport in opposition to Ottawa as an emergency recall for Montreal on Jan. 28.

Montreal has a wonderful prospect in Beck. He’s not an elite scorer with 19 targets and 29 assists in 41 OHL video games however he performs with three-zone element and is excellent in the face-off circle. He continues to venture as a stable No. 3 centreman — with spot responsibility as a No. 2 — at the NHL stage.

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Jayden Struble: Struble is coming into the stretch drive of his senior season at Northeastern College. Montreal will probably be on the clock to get him signed. Not a lot has modified with Struble. He continues to log the majority of his minutes at even power and the penalty kill for the Huskies. He averages round 19 minutes per sport. Struble has an opportunity to be a two-way defenceman whereas doubtlessly leaning towards a shutdown position in the NHL. He competes and brings a bodily edge. I’m not anticipating a lot in the approach of offence when he arrives at the professional stage. Not too long ago he went by means of a big dry spell of 1 help in 12 video games however snapped out of his stoop by contributing six assists in his final 5 video games.

TRADE DEADLINE APPROACH

I’ve been suggesting “hypothetical” trade eventualities, in my Canadian workforce breakdowns over the previous a number of weeks.

Montreal is a vendor. There isn’t a doubt they’re in the midst of a rebuild. The cycle of prospects they’ve on the horizon could be very deep. They may, finally, not have sufficient room for all of their home-grown expertise on their NHL roster. However inner competitors is a superb equalizer that gives alternatives for his or her finest prospects to battle for jobs. I additionally consider it’s of their finest curiosity to proceed so as to add draft capital and choose extra property for the group. Good property finally land by yourself roster, or they’re utilized in trades with groups to amass veteran gamers.

With that in thoughts, listed here are a couple of hypothetical trade eventualities:

MONTREAL TRADES: Joel Edmundson
EDMONTON TRADES: Jesse Puljujarvi (expiring contract), lottery-protected 2023 first-round choose or unprotected 2024 first-round choose (Montreal’s selection no later than one week earlier than 2023 draft).

MONTREAL TRADES: Mike Hoffman (retain 50 per cent of wage)
CALGARY TRADES: Second-round choose (2024) and sixth-round choose (2025)

MONTREAL TRADES: David Savard (retain 25 per cent of wage)
TAMPA BAY TRADES: Vladislav Namestnikov (expiring contract) and second-round choose (2024).

Notice: On the floor, it seems costly for Montreal when retaining wage. The fact is the Canadiens have cap house now and a younger crop of gamers becoming a member of their roster on entry-level offers in the close to future. The Canadiens would primarily be buying the second-round and sixth-round picks with the salaries being retained, permitting them to additional add to their prospect pool with the further draft alternatives.

Extra from Sportsnet

Canadiens mailbag: How seemingly is a Josh Anderson trade earlier than the deadline?

Canadiens preventing by means of unattainable circumstances, rising even by means of losses

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