To tie or to not tie, that’s the query.
Whether or not you publicly admitted it or not—and you may admit it right here since we’re all mates—we have been all intrigued Sunday night time by the opportunity of this NFL season concluding with a Raiders-Chargers tie that put each groups within the playoffs.
Not solely did it present for nice water cooler speak, nevertheless it allowed us all to live-coach the sport from our couches as a tie grew to become a definite risk within the remaining two minutes of time beyond regulation. Alas, we didn’t get anarchy because the Chargers’ porous run protection reared its’ ugly head and helped the Raiders prevail on a walk-off subject objective.
Stephen B. Morton/AP
Let’s bear in mind, although, why the tie situation even got here into play: The Colts’ epic meltdown in Jacksonville as Sunday’s second-biggest favourite. When you wager a moneyline parlay Sunday, the Colts at -14 appeared like a fairly simple inclusion. They simply wanted to win towards a tanking staff whose followers have been carrying clown make-up to the sport.
And so they misplaced by 15! The Colts supplied one of many largest chokes in NFL historical past contemplating the stakes — win and make the playoffs — and the opponent.
Indianapolis headlines the ugly part of our Week 18 betting recap, however there was additionally loads of good and, sadly, some unhealthy. Let’s break all of it down!
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THE GOOD
J-A-G-U-A-R-S!!!
Don’t be concerned, we’ve got loads to return on the Colts.
However here is an incredible notice:
Sunday’s win marked the second time this yr the Jaguars received outright as an underdog of least 14 factors. Additionally they beat the Payments at house, 9-6, as a 14.5-point canine.
The Jaguars have been +700 on the moneyline Sunday.
When you had the heart to wager the Jags to win each this recreation and the Payments on the moneyline, you most likely lined your self for loads of different losses.
(Makes notice to self for subsequent yr’s traces…)
Had It the Entire Means
Those that backed the Payments at -15.5—the largest unfold of the day—needed to be scared with how Buffalo performed towards the Jets, however they walked away with a much bigger bankroll.
The Payments drove the ball to the Jets’ 1-yard line with lower than 4 minutes to go and confronted a third-and-goal on the 5-yard line whereas nursing a 10-point lead.
Josh Allen discovered Devin Singletary for a landing that supplied the ultimate rating: 27-10. The Payments made you sweat, however generally that makes it all of the extra rewarding when you’re being powerbombed via a desk within the parking zone.
Landing Enjoyable
One in every of our favourite elements of this column is itemizing the good landing payouts, particularly once they come from obscure gamers. Listed below are the Week 18 heroes:
• 49ers WR Jauan Jennings final landing: +3300 (+570 anytime)
• Buccaneers WR Scotty Miller final landing: +3000 (+725 anytime)
• Bears RB Damien Williams first landing: +3000 (+590 anytime)
• Texans WR Danny Amendola final landing: +2800 (+520 anytime)
• Titans TE Anthony Firkser first landing: +2000 (+350 anytime)
• Saints TE Adam Trautman first landing: +2000 (+400 anytime)
• Jaguars WR Laquon Treadwell first landing: +1850 (+360 anytime)
• Bengals RB Chris Evans final landing: +1450 (+320 anytime)
• Packers WR Allen Lazard first landing: +1450
• Rams TE Tyler Higbee first landing: +1250
• Saints TE Juwan Johnson anytime landing: +725
• Vikings WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette anytime landing: +590
Straightforward Unders
Three video games appeared like simple beneath targets Sunday: Steelers-Ravens, Bengals-Browns and Giants-Washington.
Pittsburgh-Baltimore is normally a hard-nosed, defensive recreation, and the Bengals and Browns each had little to play for and began backup quarterbacks. In the meantime, the Giants ended their season with such a inspiring “offense.”
The Ravens and Steelers wanted time beyond regulation to mix for 29 factors and fell effectively wanting their projected whole of 41. The Giants and Washington mixed for 29 factors regardless of that includes the day’s lowest over/beneath of 36. The Browns and and Bengals completed with 37 factors—barely conserving it under the 37.5 projected whole.
He Discovered the Finish Zone!
Julio Jones was as soon as one of many NFL’s premier receivers, however he by some means entered Sunday having not scored since Nov. 8, 2020. He went all of 2021 and not using a landing!
Jones entered Sunday’s recreation towards the Texans with +230 odds to attain and +300 odds that he would tally greater than 0.5 touchdowns. We do not blame you in case you determined to as a substitute take an anytime landing prop on A.J. Brown.
Effectively, miracles DO occur. Jones scored for the primary time in 14 months to reward those that backed him with a good payout.
Eric Christian Smith/AP
The Texans-Titans Shootout
When you invested within the Titans’ and Texans’ passing video games and light their operating video games, you profited whereas having fun with a better-than-expected recreation.
D’Onta Foreman, Rex Burkhead and Ryan Tannehill all did not clear their speeding props at SI Sportsbook. Nevertheless, Tannehill and Davis Mills had sturdy days throwing the soccer.
Tannehill cleared his passing yards, passing touchdowns and mixed yards props, whereas Mills cleared his passing yards, passing touchdowns and completions props. Neither quarterback tossed an interception, in case you like betting that prop.
Rubbish Time Cash
The Falcons and Saints cleared their over/beneath of 40 and additionally rewarded within the final minute those that wager over 4.5 touchdowns. The Falcons scored the sport’s fifth landing with simply 27 seconds left to make it a 30-20 recreation. It is extra enjoyable when each of the overs hit, in comparison with simply one of many scoring props cashing.
I-N-T EQUALS P-A-Y
When you get pleasure from betting defenders, SI Sportsbook provided an intriguing prop at +570 odds that Jalen Ramsey would tally an interception towards the 49ers.
Ramsey delivered by making among the finest interceptions of the season. Now that is the way you repay a wager in fashion!
Simply Made It
Brown, Cooper Kupp and Kirk Cousins all simply cleared their prop projections to reward their backers.
Brown, who additionally cashed his anytime landing prop at +115 odds, completed with 68 receiving yards towards the Texans, simply above his projected whole of 66.5.
Cousins rebounded from a sluggish begin to end with 250 yards, a nick above his projection of 248.5 yards.
Kupp ended his season by delivering for his bettors like he did all yr along with his seven grabs for 118 yards and a landing. He cleared his prop of 116.5—sure, 116.5—yards. Kupp, like Brown, additionally cashed his anytime landing prop at -138 odds.
The race for Offensive Participant of the Yr might be fascinating to observe, and Kupp maybe sealed the award along with his efficiency Sunday.
Bruce Kluckhohn/AP
THE BAD
Play Some Protection!
The Vikings got here to life towards the Bears within the fourth quarter of Mike Zimmer’s remaining recreation as head coach and it burned those that wager the beneath.
The sport featured an over/beneath of 44.5 and the groups mixed for simply 27 factors coming into the fourth quarter.
You felt good at that factors. The place have been these 18 factors coming from?
Sigh.
Cousins tossed two touchdowns and the Vikings’ pick-six of Andy Dalton supplied the sport with its remaining rating of 31-17 Vikings.
A brutal beat.
An analogous state of affairs unfolded in Tampa, the place the Buccaneers and Panthers had additionally mixed for simply 27 factors coming into the fourth with an over/beneath of 42.5.
The groups then mixed for 4 touchdowns within the quarter to simply clear the over. This loss will not be as unhealthy for the reason that Buccaneers scored on the primary play of the fourth quarter, which instantly made the over a viable risk.
Not preferrred for anybody who wager the beneath to see extra factors scored within the fourth quarter (28) than scored within the first 45 minutes.
Reception Points
We’ll conclude this column with one other notice from Rams-49ers, since every go catcher listed at SI Sportsbook did not clear their receptions prop. Two gamers fell only one catch quick, making it all of the extra painful for bettors.
Kupp, regardless of his sturdy recreation, did not clear 9.5 catches. George Kittle had 5 catches—for 10 yards!!!—and did not clear 5.5 grabs. Odell Beckham Jr.’s disappearing act left him effectively wanting his mark, and Deebo Samuel had simply 4 catches with a prop of 4.5.
A Specific Guess
The Bengals-Browns recreation supplied the closest cowl/non-cover Sunday. Cleveland was favored by six factors and the sport featured an over/beneath of 37.5.
The ultimate: 21-16, Browns.
We’re placing this recreation within the ugly in case you wager the Browns to cowl and for the over to hit or in case you did a parlay with the beneath and the Browns overlaying.
Cleveland led, 21-10, with lower than three minutes to go when it allowed a late landing to tug the Bengals inside 5 pending the two-point try.
This landing clearly blew the Browns’ cowl, ruining these bets. However now it introduced the over/beneath into play.
Cincinnati, because it ought to have, went for 2 however failed. The beneath barely survived at 37. When you wager the over and the Browns to cowl, you’ll have most well-liked a minimum of one wager to hit. The Browns permitting a rating however then stopping the conversion ruined each.
Ouch.
Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP
THE UGLY
A Flop for the Ages
Let’s begin with our dissection of the Colts’ flop with this telling quantity: Indianapolis had -1099 moneyline odds. They have been a lock!
And Indianapolis, regardless of being favored by 14, misplaced by greater than two (seven-point) touchdowns! It is one factor when a closely favored staff loses by a couple of factors, like when the Payments misplaced to the Jaguars in Jacksonville earlier this yr.
However this? A 26-11 loss to a staff that simply gave up 50 factors to the Patriots? You do not see many epic failures of this proportion.
The Colts additionally burned those that backed their props.
Jonathan Taylor, who had been churning via opponents like Ivan Drago in his prime, apparently bumped into his model of Rocky Balboa.
Taylor tallied simply 77 speeding yards, his lowest output since Halloween. Sure, that spans two full months. He did not come near topping his speeding yards prop of 118.5 yards or his mixed yards prop of 133.5 yards. He additionally obtained stuffed on the objective line, stopping him from cashing his anytime landing prop wager that includes -300 odds.
Carson Wentz additionally delivered a dud by failing to clear his passing yards, passing touchdowns and mixed yards props, whereas additionally tossing an interception.
That is the kind of loss that haunts groups—and bettors—for a very long time.
Cannot Get a Cease
The Rams-49ers recreation had an over/beneath of 46.5 and it appeared set to money when the groups had mixed for simply 34 factors with lower than three minutes remaining. These holding Rams -3.5 or Rams moneyline tickets absolutely felt good too.
Los Angeles scored to take a 24-17 lead and simply wanted to forestall Jimmy Garoppolo from going 88 yards with no timeouts in 1:27 to win the sport and protect the beneath.
Effectively, the Rams did not cooperate.
A tremendous play by Samuel galvanized the 49ers and they used only one:01 to attain and finally ship this recreation to time beyond regulation for his or her eventual 27-24 victory.
A brutal beat for these on the beneath or any Rams ticket.
A Becoming Finish
Betting strictly the favorites backfired on bettors this yr, with towards the unfold (ATS) favorites ending with a 125-141-3 file, according to teamrankings.com.
The ATS favorites completed the yr by going 5-9 on Sunday, with the season ending with the Chargers, favored by three, shedding outright.
The moneyline favorites managed only a .500 day (7-7).
A becoming conclusion to the season for the favorites.
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