The story of this offseason will as soon as once more be quarterback motion. Let’s break down the futures of Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers and others.
Quarterbacks drive the NFL. Additionally they drive the offseason storylines.
Final yr, it was Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield altering locations. This yr, it’ll be Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo, and doubtlessly Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson.
This previous weekend, Carr visited with the New York Jets, the primary cease on his free company tour (he frolicked with the New Orleans Saints whereas underneath contract). Carr makes ample sense for Gang Inexperienced. The 31-year-old is a four-time Professional Bowler who instantly turns into the most effective quarterback the Jets have employed since having one yr of Brett Favre in 2008.
Carr would offer stability to a franchise lengthy looking for bedrock to construct upon. Nevertheless, there are considerations.
Whereas Carr is a considerable improve and possible makes New York a playoff workforce, he doesn’t make them a contender. Within the AFC, Carr is someplace between the seventh and Tenth-best quarterback. He’s by no means gained a playoff sport and solely reached the postseason twice.
Carr has additionally been horrid in dangerous climate. In video games when the temperature is 40 levels or beneath, the California native is 2-7. In these tilts, Carr averages a stat line of 21-of-36 for 223 yards on 6.1 yards per try, with a complete of 10 touchdowns towards 11 interceptions.
But for New York, there’s one other obtainable California quarterback who thrives in chilly climate: Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers will quickly emerge from his darkness retreat, and if the Inexperienced Bay Packers begin buying him, the idea is a two-team race between the Jets and Las Vegas Raiders is probably going.
For Rodgers, there are connections to each. The Raiders have former teammate Davante Adams. The Jets have his former offensive coordinator in Nathaniel Hackett after his one-year debacle with the Denver Broncos.
With New York and Las Vegas every having all their draft picks and the cap flexibility to tackle Rodgers, it may come right down to the place he prefers. If that’s the case, the Raiders appear in management. They’ve the higher weapons, an indoor stadium and are nearer to the west coast. And maybe most significantly, they don’t have the New York media.
If Rodgers leads to Las Vegas, that clears a path for Carr to signal with the Jets if he pleases. The query is will New York basic supervisor Joe Douglas wait and threat shedding out on Carr — who’s presently a free agent — or signal him to make sure his future is brighter than his current? And can Carr resolve to eschew the snow and sleet for the consolation of a dome in New Orleans, or the heat of Carolina and the Panthers.
To proceed the thought train, let’s say Rodgers goes to New York. Now what?
Probably the most logical conclusion is the Raiders signal Garoppolo, who has robust ties to go coach Josh McDaniels from their shared days with the New England Patriots. On this situation, Carr may nonetheless examine in with New Orleans or Carolina.
As for Jackson, he’s the headliner. A 26-year-old MVP who’s assuredly about to be tagged by the Baltimore Ravens if no long-term deal could be agreed upon.
If the 2 sides proceed to falter in negotiations, the Ravens may begin taking calls. In the event that they do, keep watch over the Atlanta Falcons.
Atlanta checks virtually each field. The Falcons are one of many few NFL groups that want to herald stars to fill their constructing. Proprietor Arthur Clean is conscious about this. Jackson, who performed faculty ball at Louisville solely six hours north at Louisville, would instantly energize a long-dormant fanbase.
On the sector, Jackson can be an outstanding slot in head coach Arthur Smith’s offense. He’d even have younger weapons in tight finish Kyle Pitts and receiver Drake London. Think about Atlanta being within the NFC, and its capacity to ship Baltimore a top-10 choose amongst different belongings, and there’s lots to love from each side.
Lastly, who’s the most well-liked participant in Falcons historical past? Michael Vick. Jackson is a really comparable participant by way of fashion and aptitude.
We’re within the early phases of the offseason. Carr may find yourself with the Jets, Panthers or Saints. Rodgers might be traded to the Jets or Raiders, or Inexperienced Bay may maintain onto him. Garoppolo may wind up frozen out of Las Vegas and New York relying on the circumstances, however he has ties into each. And with Jackson, half the league turns into if he’s on the buying and selling block.
For now, it’s all hypothesis, speak in league circles and some connecting of dots.
However that is the NFL, and quarterbacks drive the conversations. Even within the chilly of February.
Energy rankings
High 10 skill-position gamers most definitely to achieve first Professional Bowl
1. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
2. Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
3. Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans
4. Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
5. DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
6. Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
7. Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
8. Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
9. Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks
10. Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
Quotable
“Good talks thus far. We’re in it. We’re simply making an attempt to determine what’s greatest, and we’ll do what’s proper.”
– Seattle Seahawks basic supervisor John Schneider on negotiations with Geno Smith
There’s been constructive momentum with Smith and the Seahawks for the reason that season ended, and the hope for each is avoiding the franchise tag. Seattle giving the Professional Bowler round two years and $60 million is sensible, absolutely guaranteeing the primary season with partials within the second.
If the edges don’t comply with a long-term deal, count on the non-exclusive franchise tag, which might value $32.4 million.
Podcast
Random stat
Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb and Saquon Barkley every ran for more yardage than the complete Tampa Bay Buccaneers roster in 2022.
Data realized this week
1. Jalen Ramsey’s days numbered with the Rams?
Typically, a non-answer is the most effective reply. Enter Kevin Demoff.
Demoff, the Rams’ COO, spoke to NFL Community’s Bridget Condon and when requested in regards to the potential buying and selling of former All-Professional nook Jalen Ramsey, didn’t issue a firm denial.
Ramsey, 29, has three years left on his deal and after struggling this season, might be on his approach out. Nevertheless, as soon as the vast majority of next year’s salary becomes guaranteed on March 22, the Rams would solely save $5.6 million by buying and selling Ramsey, but in addition eat a whopping $19.6 million in dead money this upcoming season, per Over The Cap. In brief, Los Angeles has a month to determine a commerce if that’s the route it chooses.
If Ramsey will get dealt, there will probably be an extended checklist of suitors regardless of his relative down yr. The Rams have been cavalier about draft picks, however they may use a couple of after dealing them away in varied trades over time. Going into April’s draft, the Detroit Lions personal Los Angeles’ first-round alternative, with basic supervisor Les Snead having solely two alternatives earlier than the sixth spherical.
The draft choose scenario, compounded by Ramsey’s slippage and the necessity to retool, may make the Rams antsy.
2. Bieniemy lands with Commanders after leaving Chiefs
Eric Bieniemy lastly bought a brand new job. Nonetheless, it’s in some way not as a head coach.
After profitable his second Tremendous Bowl in 4 years with Kansas Metropolis as its offensive coordinator, Bieniemy left as a free agent to signal with the Washington Commanders in a lateral transfer.
The motive is straightforward. Bieniemy will name the performs in Washington and run the unit with out an offensive-minded head coach comparable to Andy Reid by his aspect. If he succeeds with the Commanders, no one can diminish his expertise any longer.
After all, it’s a dangerous transfer. Bieniemy is leaving the Chiefs, who’ve a number of the biggest offensive gamers of all time. Kansas Metropolis could be very prone to be wonderful as soon as more in 2023, and if Washington struggles with a first-time beginning quarterback in Sam Howell, some will unfairly say Bieniemy wasn’t of consequence with the Chiefs, and he’s failing with the Commanders.
Conversely, success with such an unproven signal-caller stamps Bieniemy as one of many league’s greatest assistants. The 53-year-old is betting on himself, absolutely hoping it is a ultimate cease earlier than being supplied a high job elsewhere.
3. With Bieniemy gone, KC focuses on Matt Nagy
The Chiefs are virtually definitely going to Matt Nagy as their new offensive coordinator. He may have a much bigger role in the years ahead.
Nagy, 44, was Kansas Metropolis’s OC underneath head coach Andy Reid from 2016-17 earlier than taking the Chicago Bears’ job, lasting 4 years (with two playoff appearances) earlier than getting fired. This previous season, Nagy was the quarterbacks coach for Patrick Mahomes, and now appears to be like to ascend with Bieniemy heading to Washington.
As for the longer term, Nagy is likely to be smart to stay round even when different probabilities come his approach. Reid is popping 65 years previous in March and has three years left on his contract. He’s undoubtedly a Hal of Famer already. Will Reid stick round and go for one more pact, hoping to strategy Invoice Belichick’s file of six Tremendous Bowls? May rely on what occurs over the following few years.
But when Nagy is aware of Reid plans to depart as soon as his contract ends, he can take over when Mahomes is 30 years previous. Not a nasty place to be in for his second act.
4. Eagles to interchange each coordinators after Steichen, Gannon get HC jobs
It’s solely been every week since Tremendous Bowl LVII, and already the Philadelphia Eagles have a couple of vital holes to fill.
Within the days following their defeat, the Eagles noticed offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and his defensive counterpart Jonathan Gannon take head-coaching gigs with the Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals, respectively.
Offensively, quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson appears sure. It’s been reported Johnson will get the job, however it was apparent from the leap. Johnson, 36, helped elevate Jalen Hurts from a controversial second-round choose to an All-Professional. He’s the apparent alternative.
Defensively, linebackers coach Nick Rallis joined Gannon in Arizona as his coordinator, taking away one inside candidate. Vic Fangio can also be gone after serving as a marketing consultant this yr, accepting the coordinator job with the Dolphins.
Two names to look at from contained in the constructing embrace defensive backs coach Dennard Wilson, a 40-year-old with more than a decade within the league. Then there’s line of defense coach Tracy Rocker, who at 56 has labored in his present capability each in faculty and professional soccer for more than 25 years. The Eagles are additionally wanting exterior of Philadelphia, requesting an interview with Sean Desai, who labored with the Seahawks as an affiliate head coach in 2022, after serving because the Bears’ defensive coordinator in ’21.
5. Saints’ cap scenario is an annual mess, and this yr isn’t any completely different
New Orleans basic supervisor Mickey Loomis should love a problem. Look no additional than his annual cap sheet.
This yr, the Saints are a comical $54.9 million over the edge regardless of being with out a franchise quarterback. And in contrast to most groups, there’s no simple contract to rid themselves of, as a result of Loomis has restructured and pushed cash down the street for years.
The outcome, courtesy of Over The Cap, is that this:
For these questioning how New Orleans will probably be cap compliant, it’ll be more money-shoving. And if Loomis lures Carr, the construction will probably be fascinating.
At some juncture, the Saints are going to basically be an enlargement workforce as they permit these contracts to run out whereas staying out of free company. Barring some phenomenal drafting and teaching, it’ll be ugly.
However Loomis hasn’t shied away from urgent the problem all through his tenure, seemingly unbothered in regards to the future.
Then once more, Loomis is 66 years previous. Perhaps he sees the longer term as another person’s drawback.
Two cents
That is going to be an interesting few months for the Buffalo Payments.
After years of getting star quarterback Josh Allen on an affordable deal, his cap hit shoots to $40 million in 2023. For basic supervisor Brandon Beane, the chore is now getting underneath the wage cap — Buffalo is $16.3 million over — and then making an attempt to retain linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and doubtlessly Jordan Poyer.
If Edmunds and/or Poyer depart, these are two regular veterans who anchor the Payments’ protection. To clear cap and afford both one or each, Beane may must work on a number of restructures, pushing cash down the road.
Moreover, Beane wants more from his rookie class than he bought final season. The Payments have hope for the way forward for first-round nook Kaiir Elam together with their Day 2 picks in working again James Cook dinner and linebacker Terrel Bernard, however Elam was uneven and Bernard made solely 22 tackles. Cook dinner is probably going taking up for free-agent again Devin Singletary, so his manufacturing will enhance.
Buffalo is a transparent Tremendous Bowl contender going ahead with Allen underneath heart, however as his cap determine rises, so does the diploma of problem.
Contained in the league
Final yr, the Broncos employed a first-time head coach together with coordinators who had no earlier expertise of their new positions. The Cardinals have done the same.
Over the previous week, Arizona introduced on Jonathan Gannon from Philadelphia, with offensive coordinator Drew Petzing coming over from the Cleveland Browns. And, as talked about, Nick Rallis is becoming a member of Gannon in an exodus from the Eagles employees.
Petzing, 35, has labored as a quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends coach since 2019, each with the Browns and Minnesota Vikings. Rallis, 29, is the league’s youngest coordinator who was a top quality management coach till becoming a member of Nick Sirianni’s Philadelphia employees in 2021.
This an enormous threat for the Cardinals, who’re making an attempt to resurrect quarterback Kyler Murray’s repute whereas additionally recovering from a hideous 4-13 marketing campaign. If issues don’t go properly early — and keep in mind Murray is out for a minimum of half the season rehabbing from a torn ACL — who steps up as a seasoned voice? Who stems the proverbial tide?
Gannon can be smart to inventory different positions on his employees with coaches who’ve vital expertise within the NFL.
Historical past lesson
All through the Nineteen Nineties, the San Francisco 49ers have been phenomenal. The Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams weren’t. And but, they ended up in the identical historic spot.
San Francisco owned the Rams, beating them 18 consecutive instances between 1990-98. The Niners additionally had the league’s greatest general file at 113-47, whereas the Rams have been second-worst at 58-102.
Extremely, each completed the last decade with one Tremendous Bowl look and title. St. Louis swept San Francisco in 1999 behind quarterback Kurt Warner’s magical MVP marketing campaign, finally triumphing in Tremendous Bowl XXXIV. As for the 49ers, they hammered the San Diego Chargers 5 years earlier, their final championship to this point.
Parting shot
The hierarchy of the AFC will draw loads of chatter over the approaching months.
It’s the Chiefs who’re champs, however the Bengals and Payments are going to be ballyhooed as the highest challengers. Then there’s the Jaguars, who made a valiant postseason push after selecting No. 1 general for 2 consecutive years.
However what of the Pittsburgh Steelers?
Regardless of beginning rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett in 12 video games, Pittsburgh went 9-8 and performed significant soccer by way of the ultimate week. Now with Pickett having a full offseason and the Steelers capable of construct round him by way of free company and the draft, head coach Mike Tomlin can have an enhanced roster and more maturity on the sport’s paramount place.
No one would argue for Pittsburgh as a Tremendous Bowl contender, however making the playoffs and being a troublesome out is in play with a powerful offseason.
TEAMS TO MENTION
PATRIOTS
COWBOYS
LIONS
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