After 14 weeks of attempting to beat the SI Sportsbook with my participant prop predictions, I’m 34-34 whereas being -6.70 items on a $100 baseline of every funding.
In Week 14, for the second week in a row, I went 3-2. Because the season has moved on, the prop choices have been restricted on Friday, particularly this week with so many points with COVID-19.
If I wager on the favourite, I lay the juice to win $100 (-115 betting line = $115 to win $100). On the underdog facet, I wager $100 to win the additional revenue (100 to win 150 with a +150 betting line).
When reviewing all of the props strains, I’m trying for flaws in pricing. I’d anticipate most of my investments to come back on the overside until I see an overcorrection in a stat line.
Wager: Greater than 225.5 passing yards for Mac Jones (-120)
Over the Patriots’ seven-game successful streak, Jones has handed for over 220 yards in solely two matchups (Week 7 vs. NYJ – 307/2 and Week 12 vs. TEN – 310/2). Over this span, New England’s opponents scored solely 9 touchdowns, resulting in a excessive variety of runs by the Patriots (35 per sport).
The Colts have the fourth-best protection towards operating backs (20.31 FPPG) whereas permitting eight dashing touchdowns. In Week 13, Tampa scored 5 instances towards them with their operating backs, resulting in 168 mixed yards and seven catches. Nevertheless, Indy does enable 4.4 yards per rush, which supplies New England a successful window on the bottom.
Jones ought to acquire his edge utilizing his tight ends (Colts enable 82 catches for 867 yards and six touchdowns), and their protection struggled with huge receivers in three matchups (15/241/2, 17/220/2, 23/253/2). Indy has been one of many higher offenses within the league over the previous eight video games (32.5 factors per sport), inviting extra passes by New England. I’ve Jones projected to move for 248 yards with a pair of touchdowns.
Wager: Greater than 25.5 receiving yards for Hunter Henry (-110)
As I discussed in Mac Jones’s profile for this week’s sport, the Colts have threat defending tight ends (16.16 FPPG – thirtieth). They’ve allowed over 15.00 factors to tight ends in seven of their 13 contests, and 11 gamers gained over 26 yards receiving at tight finish.
The dearth of passes by the Patriots has led to Henry gaining fewer than 26 yards in six of his previous eight matchups. His season began with 5 video games with over 30 receiving yards (3/31, 2/42, 5/36, 4/32/1, 6/75/1). Between Weeks 4-10, he scored seven touchdowns on that seven-game stretch, making his participant prop for scoring an anytime landing (+260) an intriguing choice as nicely. Henry appears to be like to be on a path to catch 4 passes for 46 yards with a 60% likelihood of scoring.
Wager: Greater than 95.5 yards receiving for Davante Adams (-115)
The Packers’ passing sport has been on the rise over their final 4 video games (292/0, 385/4, 307/2, 341/4), resulting in an uptick in manufacturing for Adams over his final three begins (7/115/2, 8/104, 10/121/2). Over his first 9 video games, he gained over 100 yards in solely three matchups.
SI Sportsbook now has the Packers’ favored by 6.5 factors, which must be a big signal that Lamar Jackson doesn’t play on Sunday.
Baltimore has allowed essentially the most completions over 20 (56) and 40 (13) yards within the NFL. Large receivers acquire 15.1 yards per catch, and the lack of CB Marlon Humphrey ought to result in extra injury within the deep passing video games.
Inexperienced Bay could select to decelerate the sport with the run, however their prime receiving choice nonetheless ought to have loads of possibilities within the passing sport. I’ve Adams projected for seven catches for 113 yards with one rating.
Wager: Greater than 78.5 yards receiving for Diontae Johnson (-115)
Over his earlier 11 video games, Johnson has 76 catches for 954 yards and 5 touchdowns on 120 targets. His success breaks down to six.9 catches for 87 yards and 0.45 touchdowns on 10.9 targets per sport. He has gained over 80 yards receiving in 5 of his final seven begins.
The Titans inched as much as thirty first defending huge receivers (200/2,569/16). Their protection has struggled 5 video games towards wideouts (ARI – 17/246/4, SEA – 19/326/2, NYJ – 15/264/2, KC – 24/296/2, LAR – 21/234). Tennessee gave up greater than 80 yards receiving to 11 wideouts in 13 video games.
Ben Roethlisberger has performed higher over his final 4 video games (273/3, 263/1, 236/2, 308/3), with three of those contests approaching the street. He tends to be a greater participant at residence, and the Steelers ought to look to assault with their prime two huge receivers on this matchup.
Wager: Greater than 56.5 yards receiving for Chase Claypool (-115)
I really feel like I’m stealing a web page out of Jen Piacenti’s playbook by posting an over play for two of Pittsburgh’s huge receivers in Week 15. Final yr, Claypool was a waiver wire darling due to his means to attain (11 touchdowns) and success at residence (36/55/8). In 2021, he solely has one landing all yr whereas lacking a pair of video games. The Steelers regarded his manner 29 instances over his final 4 begins, main to a few productive video games in yards (5/93, 3/82, 8/93).
A matchup with the Titans ought to convey out the perfect in his sport. Claypool averages 16.0 yards per catch with some possibilities within the run sport (10/56). I totally anticipate him to attain this week (+188), and his multi-touchdown line (+1,500) may very well be in play. For kicks, a small wager on 3+ scores would pay $7,500.
I’ve him projected for 4 catches for 69 yards and a half of a landing once I made the early projections. On my subsequent replace (comes out Saturday), Claypool will probably be pushed greater within the rating to make sure fantasy homeowners don’t miss a breakout alternative within the day by day video games.
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