After researching the NFL participant pool at quarterback, operating again, extensive receiver and tight finish every week over the previous few seasons, I’m going on a brand new path for the day by day fantasy video games in 2021. I proceed to make the projections for Sports activities Illustrated, and this baseline might be used to establish potential values at every place throughout the season.
Within the day by day video games, we see every week gamers with low salaries put up difference-maker scores. The important thing to successful is mixing a core of studs with some undervalued choices that put up influence scores for his or her worth level.
Relying on the format, the aim is to seek out gamers that may rating three or 4 occasions their wage to have a shot at GPP (grand prize pool).
Prime Tier: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys ($7,200/$8,400)
After a disastrous displaying in opposition to the Broncos (232/2) with a season-low completion fee (48.7), Prescott shortly put away the Falcons (301/3) in Week 10 regardless of trying solely 31 passes. He’s on tempo for 4,864 mixed yards with 42 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Half of his eight begins have resulted in 28.90 fantasy factors or extra. As well as, Prescott handed for over 400 yards twice with a flooring of three scores in three-fourths of his begins.
The Chiefs improved in opposition to quarterbacks over the previous 5 video games (18.23 FPPG), coming over a poor four-game stretch (BAL – 346/3, LAC – 297/4, PHI – 434/2, BUF – 374/4). Kansas Metropolis has allowed 78 factors over its final 5 matchups (versus 135 factors allowed from Weeks 2-5).
Each groups ought to rating on this matchup, inviting a excessive variety of passes for Prescott. He’s projected for 350 mixed yards with three touchdowns. SI Sportsbook posted an over/beneath of 56.5 for the Cowboys/Chiefs matchup.
Extra: Patrick Mahomes – 29.01 fantasy factors
Worth: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers ($5,100/$7,500)
The Panthers paid Newton to be their beginning quarterback for the rest of the season, and he ought to begin on Sunday. Final week, Carolina had him on the sphere for under 9 performs, however he nonetheless scored twice (one dashing and one passing). Newton completed because the twentieth scoring quarterback in Week 10, outscoring Teddy Bridgewater, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan and Colt McCoy.
Washington misplaced its prime cross rusher (DE Chase Younger) to a torn ACL in opposition to Tampa Bay, which improves the passing window for the Panthers’ passing recreation. Washington already has the worst protection within the league in opposition to quarterbacks (27.41 FPPG). Most of their failure got here from Weeks 2-5 (31.95, 42.75, 32.15, and 28.95 fantasy factors). Quarterbacks achieve 7.7 yards per cross try with 24 touchdowns over 9 contests. Washington additionally exhibits some danger defending dashing quarterbacks (36/219/2 – 6.1 yards per rush).
The Panthers’ quarterbacks have run the ball 45 occasions this yr, resulting in 217 yards and 6 touchdowns. Newton ought to run the ball eight to 10 occasions with an affordable probability of scoring a dashing landing. Christian McCaffrey performed just like the beast he’s in Week 10 (161 scrimmage yards and 10 catches) whereas solely being on the sphere for 59 p.c of performs run by Carolina. With a minimal of 20.00 fantasy factors, Newton might be nicely value his funding.
Extra: Tua Tagovailoa – 21.37 fantasy factors
Prime Tier: Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns ($7,800/$9,000)
Final week was a missed alternative for Chubb and his fantasy homeowners, with Chubb on the COVID-19 record. D’Ernest Johnson completed with 88 p.c of the operating again snaps in opposition to the Patriots (no different Browns again has been on the sphere for over 69 p.c of their performs in another week). He gained 157 yards on 26 touches. Chubb flashed in Week 9 (163 mixed yards with two touchdowns and two catches) regardless of touching the ball 18 occasions vs. the Bengals. On the yr, he’s gaining 6.0 yards per rush whereas being on tempo for 1,580 mixed yards with 12 touchdowns and 16 catches over 14 video games. Chubb ought to return to the beginning function in opposition to the Lions.
Detroit sits twenty ninth defending operating backs (28.89 FPPG), with backs scoring 16 touchdowns. Their greatest failures got here in Week 2 (GB – 149 mixed yards with 4 touchdowns and 7 catches), Week 4 (194 mixed yards with three touchdowns and two catches), Week 6 (233 mixed yards with two touchdowns and eight catches) and Week 8 (PHI – 39/165/4).
The Browns’ operating backs lead the NFL in dashing yards (1,429) and dashing touchdowns (15) whereas gaining 5.4 yards per carry. Additionally they have 54 catches for 478 yards and two extra scores. Chubb appears to be like poised to attain a number of occasions with over 100 yards dashing.
Extra: Christian McCaffrey – 26.42 fantasy factors
Worth: A.J. Dillon, Inexperienced Bay ($6,200/$7,000)
A knee damage to Aaron Jones provides Dillon an elite opportuning over the subsequent couple of weeks. His inventory has been rising over his final three weeks (296 mixed yards with two touchdowns and 6 catches) whereas touching the ball 17 occasions per recreation. His energy again construct factors to 25-plus touches in opposition to the Vikings. As well as, Dillon performed higher than anticipated within the passing recreation (16/196/1), which provides to his flooring in PPR codecs.
Minnesota tends to be up and down defending operating backs (twenty second in fantasy factors allowed per recreation – 24.88). Runners achieve 4.7 yards per carry with some success within the passing recreation (42/286/3).
I view Dillon as a free sq. within the day by day video games in Week 11. He ought to discover a solution to rating over 25.00 fantasy factors.
Extra: James Conner – 22.62 fantasy factors
Prime Tier: DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks ($6,800/$7,500)
Over Russell Wilson’s final two-and-a-half video games, he’s handed for under 462 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions. Metcalf caught solely three of his eight targets for 26 yards in opposition to the Packers. He has fewer than 10 targets in his previous seven begins whereas gaining over 100 yards in just one contest (6/107/1) in 2021. Final yr, Metcalf struggled in each video games in opposition to the Cardinals (2/23 and three/46/1 on 10 mixed targets).
Arizona ranks thirteenth defending extensive receivers (118/1,378//12). Their greatest struggles got here in opposition to the Vikings’ (17/195/3) and Rams’ (16/208/2) wideouts.
A big a part of Seattle’s struggles has been the protection. They will’t get offenses off the sphere. This mixture ought to pressure the Seahawks to throw as they need to be trailing in lots of video games. The important thing for Metcalf on this matchup could be Kyler Murray beginning for the Cardinals. If not, each groups could also be content material slowing down the sport. I count on Wilson to bounce again in an enormous approach, pointing to Metcalf being a part of his rebound.
Extra: Mike Evans – 26.57 fantasy factors
Worth: Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,200/$6,500)
Williams hasn’t been an enormous fantasy hit in over a month. His season began with 4 electrical video games (8/82/1, 7/91/1, 7/122/2, and eight/165/2) over the primary 5 weeks. Since then, he left a gap in fantasy beginning lineups (2/27, 2/19, 2/58, and 4/33) on a mixed 21 targets. The Chargers had him on the sphere for 93.8% of their performs over the previous three contests.
Pittsburgh struggled with extensive receivers over the primary 5 video games (BUF – 23/221/1, LV – 14/224/1, CIN – 10/134/3, GB – 13/166/2, and DEN – 16/234/2). Their cross protection improved over the previous month, nevertheless it was helped by a good schedule (SEA, CLE, CHI, and DET). The Steelers have the looks of getting a prime protection, however they do have danger in opposition to the run, and a greater quarterback will expose their weak point within the secondary.
Williams is usually a matchup downside, and he has the scale to win bounce balls on the aim line. As well as, his wage has slid sufficient the place Williams presents potential upside for his worth level.
Extra: Tee Higgins – 15.17 fantasy factors
Prime Tier: Travis Kelce, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs ($7,100/$7,300)
Slowly however absolutely, Kelce is opening up a fantasy edge once more at tight finish. Over the previous two video games, he caught 13 of his 18 targets for 187 yards and a rating. Nevertheless, the Chiefs did a significantly better job final week getting him straightforward catches over the brief areas of the sphere, resulting in a bump in his yards per catch (11.9 – his highest stage since Week 2). His flooring stays excessive, however Kelce nonetheless hasn’t scored over 26.00 fantasy factors in PPR leagues this season.
Dallas struggled in opposition to tight ends in Week 1 (TB – 8/90/2) and Week 3 (PHI – 6/119/1). They haven’t allowed a decent finish rating over their final six video games. Over this span, no staff scored over 15.00 fantasy factors from the tight finish place.
A quick-paced recreation could be an enormous win for Kelce’s alternative and scoring upside. Nevertheless, he must pair a landing with over 100 yards receiving to fill his wage bucket.
Extra: Mike Gesicki – 14.95 fantasy factors
Worth: Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys ($4,600/$6,000)
Schultz got here up empty in Week 10 (1/14) on account of a few fast dashing scores after a pair of turnovers by Atlanta. Over the primary six video games, the Cowboys’ tight ends have been energetic within the passing recreation (9/65, 5/55, 8/94/2, 7/76/2, 6/79, and 6/80/1), resulting in Schultz shining over a four-game stretch (23/296/3 on 29 targets). Nevertheless, he has been a way more difficult trip over the past three video games (7/79 on 14 targets).
Kansas Metropolis performed nicely vs. tight ends over the past two weeks (GB – 3/15 and LV – 4/24). They allowed six touchdowns over a five-game stretch midseason whereas providing disastrous draw back in three matchups (CLE – 7/120, PHI – 11/116/1, and BUF – 4/118/1).
An up-tempo recreation bodes nicely for the success of Schultz. Sadly, I misplaced on him final week, however a drop in wage and higher matchup ought to result in a playable recreation within the day by day house.
Extra fantasy protection: