Residing within the every day recreation world for any sport requires a variety of work with little reward for the informal participant until the celebrities align for one magical day. Most every day homeowners have to resolve whether or not to be a grinder or a swing-for-the-fences participant. One path retains you alive for extra days of motion with the thought of constructing your bankroll slowly. The opposite has a donation really feel whereas providing a pot of gold on the finish of a distant rainbow.
Because the every day websites began providing the million-dollar total prize, I’ve been looking for my get-out-of-jail-free card. The aim is to handicap the primary soccer slate on Sunday and spend money on the very best mixture of basis gamers. If my key gamers have success, I will probably be within the hunt with many groups. I anticipate to be within the combine in 4 or 5 weeks every season.
Final week, so much modified from Thursday to Sunday for my good lineup, with Ben Roethlisberger touchdown on the Covid-19 record. I caught with a Steelers’ vast receiver stack whereas pivoting Rhamondre Stevenson at flex, because of the additional wage cap room from dropping right down to Mason Rudolph as my quarterback. I additionally flipped from Najee Harris to Dalvin Cook dinner on Sunday. In the long run, I nearly broke even for the week regardless of the a number of modifications.
All gamers listed are for the primary slate of video games on Sunday.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Prescott ranks second at quarterback on this week’s projections at Sports activities Illustrated. I did his outlook for his matchup within the Wednesday DFS report. The Cowboys could have success operating the ball, so recreation movement and recreation rating will probably be crucial for Prescott to put up an impression recreation. He has the instruments within the passing recreation to succeed, however Dallas must be chasing on the scoreboard for him to be the highest quarterback on the day.
The Cowboys should get Amari Cooper extra concerned, and Michael Gallup must be improved in his second recreation again after struggling a calf concern in Week 1. Dalton Schultz could very nicely find yourself being the worth possibility in a Cowboys’ passing stack.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
After three uninteresting showings (241/1, 285/1, 164/1), Kansas Metropolis found out learn how to transfer the ball once more through the move final week in opposition to the Raiders. Mahomes completed his greatest day (406/5) of the yr whereas gaining 8.1 yards per move try. Final week, the Chiefs used extra screens, permitting their receivers to make performs within the open area in tight quarters. Kansas Metropolis averages greater than 41 passes, and Mahomes has 26 touchdowns by way of 10 video games.
Dallas jumped to sixteenth in quarterback protection (21.74 FPPG) after holding the Falcons to three.55 fantasy factors within the passing recreation. Over the primary 4 weeks, the Cowboys allowed over 300 yards passing in every recreation. Tom Brady (379/4) and Sam Darnold (336/4) had probably the most success. Dallas has confronted New England (229/4), Minnesota (202/2), Denver (248/1) and Atlanta (131/0) over their final 4 matchups. On the yr, vast receivers achieve 14.7 yards per catch vs. the Cowboys.
SI Sportsbook record this matchup with the best over/beneath (56) on Sunday. The full for this recreation did fall by half some extent since Wednesday. Mahomes will get his yards, and a ground of three touchdowns must be a given.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Payments
A pair of third-quarter bombs to Gabriel Davis (49 and 36 yards) arrange two speeding touchdowns final week in a blowout recreation in opposition to the Jets. Allen additionally hit on a 43-yard move to Stefon Diggs within the fourth quarter, establishing his greatest passing day (366 yards) of the yr. He gained 20 yards or extra on six passes, and three of these completions hit the 40-yard mark. Allen slipped to second in quarterback scoring (27.81 FPPG). From Weeks 3-8, he scored over 30.00 fantasy factors in 4 of his 5 matchups.
The Colts’ protection has been up and down all yr. 5 offenses beat them for 3 or extra passing touchdowns. Lamar Jackson had the most effective passing day of his profession (442/4), and the Jets’ backup quarterback completed with 430 mixed yards and 4 touchdowns in Week 9. Indy permits 7.7 yards per move try with 23 passing scores.
Allen has a deep sufficient receiving corps to blister Indianapolis within the passing recreation. I additionally anticipate him to be lively within the run recreation. The Colts will strive their greatest to decelerate the clock with Jonathan Taylor, however a chaser recreation appears extra probably. Allen attracts the highest quarterback rating once more in Week 11 (319 mixed yards with 3.5 touchdowns).
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Jackson has the identical completion fee (64.4) as he did in 2020, however he’s making an attempt 9.26 extra passes per recreation this season. His success within the run recreation (106/639/2) stays excessive, however Jackson solely has two video games with multiple passing rating. Surprisingly, Miami held him to solely 5.5 yards per move try with one landing.
Chicago sits nineteenth defending quarterbacks (21.86 FPPG). They’ve allowed three speeding scores to quarterbacks regardless of not dealing with a operating risk all yr (34/69). The Bears gave up 97 factors over their final three contests in opposition to TB, SF and PIT. Quarterbacks achieve 8.0 yards per move try with 16 passing touchdowns. Chicago’s protection does have 24 sacks.
The Ravens will take a look at this protection within the deep passing, and Jackson ought to rush for extra yards than all 9 opposing quarterbacks mixed had in opposition to the Bears’ protection this yr.
Aaron Rodgers, Inexperienced Bay Packers
The magic in Rodgers’ scoring potential stays lacking over his first 9 video games. He ranks 18th in quarterback scoring (191.80 fantasy factors) whereas failing to ship a passing landing in two video games. Over his final 4 begins, Rodgers gained 992 mixed yards with eight touchdowns (21.5 FPPG). The Packers misplaced their prime pass-catching again in Aaron Jones (37/298/4) for a few video games, pointing to a extra energy run recreation with A.J. Dillon. In 2020, Rodgers performed nicely in each matchups (366/4 and 300/3) in opposition to the Vikings.
The Vikings have the 14th greatest protection (21.42 FPPG) in opposition to quarterbacks. Even with success in 4 video games (allowed fewer than 20.00 fantasy factors), the Cardinals (431/4) and Ravens (386/3) drilled them for impression video games. Their secondary confirmed catastrophe draw back in two contests (ARI – 17/277/3 and DAL – 18/325/2).
Rodgers wants Minnesota to resolve the Packers’ protection (allowed 56 factors over their final 5 matchups) for this recreation to be performed with a high-scoring tempo. Davante Adams hasn’t had an impression recreation since Week 5, pushing him into the “due” class.
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
The speeding potential by Newton paired along with his low wage places him in play in his first anticipated begin for the Panthers. He would fill his wage bucket this week with 200 yards passing, 20 speeding yards, and two scores (one speeding and one passing). Over the primary 4 video games, Carolina had nice quarterback manufacturing (1,241 mixed yards with 10 touchdowns). Newton received’t match these passing yards, however he will probably be lively on the bottom. His alternative and outlook have been highlighted in my every day recreation article earlier this week. By rostering Newton, it permits me to play Christian McCaffrey as nicely in my good lineup in Week 11.
RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
Over his 4 full video games, McCaffrey has gained 591 mixed yards with one landing and 28 catches. His manufacturing breaks right down to 93.10 fantasy factors (23.28 FPPG), leaving him a landing wanting being an impression participant. In Week 10, he was nicely on his option to a monster exhibiting, however Carolina rested him late within the recreation after establishing an enormous lead.
Washington is about league common defending operating backs (14th – 23.23 FPPG). Nevertheless, they misplaced their prime move rusher (DE Chase Younger) for the season with a torn ACL final week, which must be a win for the Panthers’ offense. Washington held their previous three opponents to 193 mixed yards speeding with one landing on 49 rushes. In Week 4, they’d important points defending Cordarrelle Patterson (116 mixed yards with three touchdowns and 5 catches).
With my plan to make use of Newton as my quarterback for my beginning lineup, I create a greater window to suit McCaffrey, plus add a hookup to my quarterback. I’ve him projected for 140 mixed yards with one landing and 6 catches. If he hits on a 100-yard bonus and scores a second landing, McCaffrey will probably be on the successful million-dollar ticket in Week 11.
RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
After 10 video games, the Browns’ backs have gained 1,907 mixed scrimmage yards with 17 touchdowns and 54 catches, or 346.7 fantasy factors (34.67 per recreation). Chubb has been on the sector in seven video games, resulting in 123.00 fantasy factors. Nevertheless, the Browns proceed to present him a minimal alternative within the passing recreation (8/69), and he has been snipped on the aim a number of instances by Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson. In his final begin in Week 9, Chubb gained 163 yards with two touchdowns and two catches.
I wrote about his matchup and A.J. Dillon in my DFS article on Wednesday. Chubb has explosive upside, however Cleveland wants to present him extra probabilities to provide top-five operating again stats.
RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
In his first week with beginning snaps, the Cardinals had Conner on the sector for 82 % of their performs. Nevertheless, poor offensive play by Arizona in Week 10 led to him solely receiving 13 touches (64 mixed yards with one landing and three catches). Over the primary eight weeks, Chase Edmonds was on the sector for 61.7 % of the Cardinals’ performs. Conner has 12 touchdowns in 10 video games whereas averaging 13.8 touches.
Seattle has the second-worst operating again protection (31.12 FPPG). Many of the injury got here in three matchups (TEN – 261 mixed yards with three touchdowns and 9 catches, PIT – 168 mixed yards with two touchdowns, and GB – 221 mixed yards with two touchdowns and two catches). The Seahawks wrestle with operating backs within the passing recreation (64/684/2).
Conner is sensible in Week 11 based mostly on his wage, matchup, and improved alternative. Nevertheless, his inventory takes a success if Kyler Murray can’t go well with up on Sunday.
WR Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Payments
After enjoying nicely in Week 10 (8/162/1), Diggs moved to tenth in vast receiver scoring (17.22 FPPG) in PPR leagues. Over his final 4 begins, he caught 28 of his 39 targets for 376 yards and three touchdowns.
The Colts held the Jaguars’ wideouts to solely six catches for 68 yards on 21 targets in Week 10, however they nonetheless rank poorly in vast receiver protection (130/1,654/14 – twenty ninth). Six receivers (Tyler Lockett – 4/100/2, Cooper Kupp – 9/163/2, Marquise Brown – 9/125/2, Deebo Samuel – 7/100/1, A.J. Brown – 10/155/1, and Elijah Moore – 7/84/2) delivered impression video games in opposition to Indianapolis.
Diggs has the texture of a participant about to have a two-game successful streak. His matchup appears favorable, and his recreation is on the enhance.
WR Davante Adams, Inexperienced Bay Packers
Adams was a preferred play within the every day area in Week 10, however Inexperienced Bay and Seattle struggled to attain. His greater possession led to an increase in wage regardless of producing solely regular stats (7/78). Adams solely has three touchdowns in 2021, which is nicely beneath his success final yr (18 scores over 14 begins). He owned the Vikings in each matchups in 2020 (14/156/2 and seven/53/3). Over his earlier 4 video games, Adams has 23 catches for 285 yards and one landing on 37 targets.
In two video games, Minnesota had important points with vast receivers (ARI – 17/277/3 and DAL – 18/325/2). They rank twenty seventh defending wideouts (125/1,654/10), with six gamers (Ja’Marr Chase – 5/101/1, Rondale Moore – 7/114/1, DK Metcalf – 6/107/1, Amari Cooper – 8/122/1, CeeDee Lamb – 6/112, and Marquise Brown – 9/116) gaining over 100 yards.
Adams will probably be difficult to suit for anybody rostering stud operating backs. I’ve no drawback pairing him with A.J. Dillon as each gamers might mix for 60-plus fantasy factors.
TE Travis Kelce, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
I’d prefer to have Kelce within the combine this week as I anticipate him to be a lower-percentage personal because of his greater wage. His outlook can be present in my DFS report this week.
Primarily based on my construction for this week, I want to seek out worth at tight finish and two vast receiver spots. Ideally, I’d like to make use of certainly one of these six vast receivers – Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb or Ja’Marr Chase. By taking place this path, I depart myself open for some small scores on the again finish of my roster.
The worst six defenses in opposition to vast receivers are Minnesota, Chicago, Indianapolis, Miami, Washington and Tennessee.
RB Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins
I received’t have too many shares of Gaskin within the every day contests in Week 10, however it is going to be robust to disregard the failure of the Jets’ protection in opposition to operating backs over the previous 4 weeks (66.00, 28.70, 54.80, and 39.60 fantasy factors). New York has but to carry an offense to fewer than 28.70 fantasy factors at operating again. As well as, they permit 4.7 yards per rush, with backs scoring 21 touchdowns over 9 video games. The Jets additionally surrender loads of injury to operating backs within the passing recreation (68/643/3).
Gaskin has been an each different week participant all season. He sits twenty first in operating again scoring (115.60 fantasy factors) whereas scoring 77.2% of his fantasy factors in odd weeks (12.60, 10.40, 31.90, 17.70, and 16.70). Over his final three begins, Gaskin gained solely 2.2 yards per rush (101 carries) and 5.6 yards per catch. Miami struggles to get him in area. Not a layup by any means, however he does have a wonderful matchup.
RB Darrel Williams, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
The Chiefs could have Clyde Edwards-Helaire again this week, which is priced into Williams’s early projections. Final week, he posted his career-best recreation (144 mixed yards with a landing and 9 catches). Kansas Metropolis gave Williams 61 touches over its earlier three video games, resulting in 331 mixed yards with one rating and 18 catches (19.03 FPPG). Regardless of his success, he averages solely 3.6 yards per rush, with certainly one of his 95 rushes gaining over 20 yards.
Dallas has the eighth-best protection in opposition to operating backs (21.53 fantasy factors). They permit 4.3 yards per carry. Backs can succeed within the passing recreation (50/347/1), however they solely have 4 speeding touchdowns.
A every day fantasy proprietor wants extra information earlier than deciding to play Williams this week. His matchup isn’t best, however his wage matches up along with his potential probabilities, making him a dwell possibility if Edwards-Helaire will get one other week off.
WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
By means of 10 video games, Waddle has 60 catches for 557 yards and three touchdowns on 85 targets. Nevertheless, Miami continues to make use of him near the road of scrimmage (9.3 yards per catch with three catches over 20 yards), proscribing his explosiveness. Over his previous 5 video games, Waddle has averaged 15.52 fantasy factors whereas averaging 9.8 targets.
New York slipped to 18th vs. the vast receiver place (35.81 FPPG) after getting run over by the Payments’ wideouts (16/362/2) in Week 10. The Jets enable 14.1 yards per catch to vast receivers, however they solely have eight touchdowns.
Waddle has a excessive ground, and he’ll hit on a protracted rating earlier than the top of the yr. Suppose regular with upside if you’re procuring at his wage degree.
WR Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
Lack of enjoying time because of seven missed video games with a calf concern places Gallup within the worth column in Week 11. He presents big-play and scoring potential in a matchup that initiatives to supply many touchdowns. From 2019 to 2020, Gallup caught 125 passes for 1,950 yards and eight touchdowns over 30 video games (12.27 FPPG). With a recreation beneath his belt, he appears poised to be rather more lively on this matchup.
Right here’s my good lineup for Week 11:
Extra fantasy protection:
Senior analyst Shawn Childs is a multi-sport, high-stakes fantasy legend with lifetime earnings within the excessive six-figures. He has been offering in-depth, analytical breakdowns for years all whereas serving to his subscribers to numerous titles and winnings throughout season-long & DFS. An inaugural inductee of the NFBC Corridor of Fame, Shawn can educate you learn how to prep like a champ!