NBA SO/UP Bets and Analysis: Suns-Raptors and Warriors-Grizzlies

classybuzzJanuary 11, 2022

11 7 minutes read

The Raptors have defeated among the high groups across the league in the previous few weeks now that they’ve a principally wholesome squad obtainable.

In the meantime, the Suns want to separate from the Warriors, whom they’re tied with for the most effective report. Golden State will put that report on the road Tuesday night in Memphis towards a Grizzlies group that hasn’t misplaced since earlier than Christmas.

Aaron Rose of All Raptors joins me as a visitor picker to make bets for Tuesday’s video games.

Suns Profile

Report Over Final 10 Video games: 6-4
ATS Report: 21-18
Over/Beneath Report: 19-20
Factors Per Recreation/Rank: 112.1/3
Factors Allowed Per Recreation/Rank: 105/5

Phoenix was spanked, 123-100, by the Warmth on Sunday. Although the drubbing was an apparent destructive for the Suns, they did get Deandre Ayton again from a six-game COVID-19-induced absence. Tuesday’s sport in Toronto begins a five-game street journey for Phoenix, which has fared about as nicely on the street (13-4) because it has at residence (17-5).

Raptors Profile

Report Over Final 10 Video games: 7-3
ATS Report: 20-17
Over/Beneath Report: 23-14
Factors Per Recreation/Rank: 108.2/16
Factors Allowed Per Recreation/Rank: 106.6/11

Toronto is on a six-game profitable streak that overlaps with Fred VanVleet’s barrage of 30-point video games. The Raptors beat the Warriors, Jazz and Bucks over the previous few weeks, and now get one other crack at one of many league’s high groups on their residence flooring, the place they’re 12-10 and have received 5 in a row.

Kyle Wooden’s Bets:

Unfold choose: Raptors +3.5

I actually like what Toronto has executed currently and I feel this sport will likely be shut. The Raptors have carried out barely higher ATS this season and have performed like the higher group over the previous few weeks. I nonetheless just like the Suns to win just because I don’t see a group pretty much as good as Phoenix dropping two video games in a row, one thing its executed twice all season. All that stated, Scottie Barnes’ standing is certainly one thing to observe earlier than locking in your choose. The rookie is a big a part of Toronto’s success and he’s been one of many group’s most constant and obtainable gamers this yr.

Over/Beneath choose: Beneath 223.5

Deandre Ayton’s presence within the paint can restrict the Raptors’ means to attain in and across the paint, and the Suns have the prolonged wings to throw at a guard like VanVleet to maintain him from going for an enormous scoring evening. Toronto video games hit the over at one of many highest charges within the NBA, however when taking part in the league’s No. 5 protection it is going to be harder to get into the 110s wanted for this sport to go over.

Visitor picker Aaron Rose’s Bets:

Unfold choose: Suns -3.5

The Raptors have jumped up the Jap Convention standings on the again of a six-game profitable streak, however beneath the floor, main questions persist. All these wins got here towards an opponent lacking its finest participant, save for perhaps the Pelicans, relying on the way you account for Zion Williamson. Lastly, the Suns are coming to Toronto as an actual litmus check for the Raptors and, nicely, I’m skeptical. The Suns are principally wholesome, and the Raptors could possibly be with out two starters and no one to actually decelerate Deandre Ayton. Give me the Suns -3.5.

Over/Beneath choose: Beneath 223.5

The Raptors have been placing up some huge offensive numbers of late, however they haven’t come towards superb defensive groups. The Suns will pose a troublesome problem for Toronto, particularly if Gary Trent Jr. can’t go. That 223.5 quantity is a bit of too excessive for my liking. Go together with the beneath.

Prop: Fred VanVleet Over 1.5 Steals

It is a bizarre one however at +105 there’s definitely worth in Fred VanVleet over 1.5 steals. He’s gone over that quantity in eight of his final 9 video games and he’s averaging 1.6 steals per sport this season. He’ll be locked in on the Suns’ two guards for many of the evening and might be due for a steal off Ayton when Toronto doubles the submit. You is perhaps ready for the fourth quarter for yet one more, however good worth is sweet worth.

John Hefti/AP

Time: 8 p.m. ET | NBA TV
Unfold: Warriors -2.5 (+100) | Grizzlies +2.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Warriors (-125) | Grizzlies (+105)
Complete: Beneath 219.5 (-110) | Over 218.5 (-110)
Accidents: Warriors F Otto Porter Jr.—Day-to-day; Warriors F Draymond Inexperienced—Out; Warriors C James Wiseman—Out; Warriors G Gary Payton II—Day-to-day; Grizzlies C Steven Adams—Out; Grizzlies G Dillon Brooks—Out

Warriors Profile

Report Over Final 10 Video games: 6-4
ATS Report: 23-14-2
Over/Beneath Report: 12-25-2
Factors Per Recreation/Rank: 109.8/11
Factors Allowed Per Recreation/Rank: 100.9/1

Golden State’s torrid tempo has slowed down in the previous few weeks, dropping three video games by which it failed to attain 100 factors. This group goes as its top-ranked protection goes, and it simply bought the most effective reinforcement possible in Klay Thompson, an elite shooter and apt wing defender. The Warriors probably didn’t anticipate to be tied for the most effective report within the NBA once they bought Thompson again, in order that they’re afforded much more leeway in easing him again into the fold—he performed 20 minutes Sunday towards Cleveland.

Grizzlies Profile

Report Over Final 10 Video games: 9-1
ATS Report: 27-15
Over/Beneath Report: 20-20-2
Factors Per Recreation/Rank: 112.1/4
Factors Allowed Per Recreation/Rank: 107.9/15

Memphis has soared within the standings in latest weeks due to its nine-game profitable streak. The Grizzlies’ final loss was Dec. 23 on the street towards the Warriors. Since then, they’ve defeated the Suns, Nets, Cavaliers and Lakers (twice). It’s not all Ja Morant, who’s been on a tear—he’s additionally getting ample assist from Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. whereas Dillon Brooks misses time.

Kyle Wooden’s Bets:

Unfold choose: Grizzlies +2.5

Golden State is averaging lower than 100 factors over its final six video games, whereas Memphis has logged lower than than 110 factors simply as soon as throughout its present win streak. Merely put, the Grizzlies are taking part in nice basketball whereas not being at full power and are taking part in a lot better defensively. The Warriors’ protection hasn’t been the problem—they’re first within the league in protection—however the offense has left one thing to be desired whereas Steph Curry has gotten off to a tough January. That’s why I like Memphis getting factors right here and I’m tempted to take them to win outright.

Over/Beneath choose: Over 219.5

Warriors’ video games go over on the lowest fee within the league as a consequence of their lockdown protection. In the meantime, Grizzlies video games achieve this about half the time. Even with Golden State’s defensive prowess, I discover this line to be too low. With Draymond Inexperienced and Steven Adams out, each defenses will likely be weakened down low, which opens up the door for extra scoring.

Prop: Andrew Wiggins Over 16.5 Factors

Wiggins did not clear this determine in his final sport however he did so in his earlier seven outings. He averages 18.8 PPG, and Brooks, one among Memphis’ high wing defenders, isn’t obtainable to protect the prolonged ahead on the perimeter.

Visitor picker Aaron Rose’s Bets:

Unfold choose: Warriors -2.5

The Grizzlies could be the hottest group within the league proper now, however their final loss got here towards the Warriors and their subsequent one will too. Ja Morant appears like a person on a mission proper now, however the lack of Brooks goes to trigger Memphis issues towards the Splash Brothers. With Steph Curry taking part in at an MVP stage and Thompson lastly again wholesome, the Warriors are a group no one must be taking evenly. Curry dropped 46 factors in his final assembly towards the Grizzlies and one other offensive outburst shouldn’t shock anybody with Brooks out. The two.5-point unfold for Golden State isn’t sufficient to discourage me, even with out Inexperienced.

Over/Beneath choose: Over 219.5

These groups totals 217 of their final assembly, however that was with out Thompson and with defensive stars Brooks and Inexperienced, who’ve already been dominated out. If Adams can’t go for Memphis, this one could possibly be a really high-scoring affair. No matter his standing, the over is definitely the higher aspect right here.

Prop: Steph Curry Over 25.5 Factors

Curry won’t put up 46 factors once more, however 25 appears simply beatable for the MVP frontrunner who dropped 36 factors towards Memphis again in October. Once more, with Brooks out of the lineup, the Grizzlies will likely be with out their finest on-ball defender. Give me Curry to go over 25.5 and over his 26.8 factors per sport common for the season.

DFS Worth Performs

(Costs primarily based on 7 p.m. important slate)
PG/SG Cade Cunningham, Pistons (FD: $6,500 | DK: $7,800)
SG Desmond Bane, Grizzlies (FD: $7,200 | $6,500)
SF Saddiq Bey, Pistons (FD: $6,500 | $7,500)
PF Jarred Vanderbilt, Timberwolves (FD: $6,300 | $6,200)
C Jonas Valanciunas, Pelicans (FD: $7,900 | $8,500)

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