GOP could win 6 of Arizona’s 9 congressional seats after remap

“The map achieves what Democrats say they need nationally. It maximizes the quantity of aggressive seats in Arizona,” stated Adam Kincaid, the chief director of the Nationwide Republican Redistricting Belief. “There’s three good Republican seats. There’s two or three good Democrat seats. After which there’s three to 5 aggressive seats, relying on the cycle.”(*6*)

Regardless of the unanimous vote, the 2 Democratic members claimed the ultimate product favored the (*9*) and was not consultant of a state that’s trending blue.(*6*)

The map accommodates 5 seats now-President Joe Biden would have carried in 2020 — however two of them would have backed him by the slimmest of margins, in accordance with a POLITICO evaluation. In the meantime, O’Halleran’s district leans Republican, and Rep. Greg Stanton’s (D-Ariz.) leans Democratic, although both could maybe grow to be aggressive in political environments that strongly favor one social gathering.(*6*)


Democrats spent a lot of the fee’s deliberations excoriating the impartial chair for selections she made that they felt favored Republicans. The Nationwide Democratic Redistricting Committee, led by former Legal professional Basic Eric Holder, accused Erika Neuberg of being “derelict in her duties to the voters of Arizona” and “impartial in title solely.”(*6*)

And the penultimate session was particularly heated between the commissioners.(*6*)

“We’re in a state now that has 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans which have been elected to Congress,” Democratic commissioner Shereen Lerner stated Tuesday. “There is no such thing as a excuse for drawing a six to 3 map that favors both social gathering as half of that.”(*6*)

The partisan bickering finally resulted in modifications that left the Schweikert and open Tucson seats extra aggressive. And the 2 Democratic commissioners, two Republicans commissioners and the chair all voted for it.(*6*)

These two seats are on monitor to host some of probably the most aggressive races within the nation subsequent fall. Biden would have carried the brand new Tucson district by lower than 1 level in 2020 (in comparison with his 11-point margin below the previous traces).(*6*)

The seat is open as a result of Kirkpatrick is retiring in 2022. Nationwide Republicans are most enthusiastic about Juan Ciscomani, a former senior adviser to (*9*) Gov. Doug Ducey who raised over $600,000 final quarter.(*6*)

Prime Democratic candidates embrace state Sen. Kristen Engel and state Rep. Daniel Hernandez Jr., who was injured in 2011 through the Tucson capturing as an intern for then-Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-Ariz.).(*6*)

Within the Scottsdale swing-seat, Schweikert, a six-term Republican who has posted anemic fundraising amid an ongoing ethics scandal, finds himself in an much more aggressive turf. Biden carries this redrawn model by rather less than 2 factors (Trump carried it by 4 factors earlier than the redraw).(*6*)

Democratic candidates embrace Jevin Hodge, a neighborhood chief, and Adam Metzendorf, a former government for the Phoenix Suns, although extra could enter the race.(*6*)

The most important unknown now’s the destiny of O’Halleran, a three-term Democratic reasonable, who should determine whether or not to hunt reelection in a district that grew to become considerably extra Republican, or retire. A Chicago police officer-turned Arizona state legislator, O’Halleran waffled from Republican to impartial to Democrat earlier than he was elected to Congress in 2016.(*6*)

His path to reelection grew to become a lot steeper through the fee’s deliberation course of when Neuberg, the tie-breaking impartial commissioner, determined in opposition to splitting Yavapai County — although the present map does divide the county between two districts. O’Halleran’s huge seat, which spans a lot of the northeast portion of the state and contains the Navajo and Hopi nations, will soak up all of Yavapai, remodeling it from a seat Biden gained by 2 factors to 1 Trump would have carried by 8 factors.(*6*)

That transfer additionally locations Prescott, the hometown of embattled (*9*) Rep. Paul Gosar, in O’Halleran’s district, although he could additionally select to run within the new ninth District alongside the state’s western border that extra intently resembles his previous seat and is extra solidly Republican.(*6*)


O’Halleran isn’t any stranger to robust races and has fared effectively in opposition to baggage-laden opponents — his 2016 victory was in opposition to Paul Babeu, a county sheriff with a slew of authorized troubles.(*6*)

Now O’Halleran’s present slate of opponents embrace Ron Watkins, a infamous promoter of QAnon conspiracy theories; Walt Blackman, a state consultant identified for praising the Proud Boys, a far-right nationalist group; and Eli Crane, a Navy SEAL who referred to as on the state legislature to “decertify” the 2020 election outcomes.(*6*)

“Actually, it is one of the craziest assemblages of right-wing kookery that I’ve ever seen between the three of them,” stated one Democratic strategist engaged on federal races within the state.(*6*)

Like O’Halleran, Stanton additionally noticed an enormous drop within the Democratic efficiency of his district. Biden’s margin in his Phoenix space seat dropped from 23 to 10 factors. Nonetheless, that is winnable for Stanton in most cycles, and the Phoenix suburbs have been trending towards Democrats.(*6*)

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