Please you should definitely try my Dynasty Stock Watch recap for Weeks 6 to 9; the recap for Weeks 14 to 17 might be out later this week.
Let’s ring the dynasty inventory watch opening bell:
- QB Patrick Mahomes (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild/Superflex: PRICE CHECK)
- RB James Conner (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: HOLD)
- QB Jordan Love (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: HOLD)
- WR Brandon Aiyuk (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: BUY)
- WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: HOLD)
Ah, what might have been with Mahomes! After a frightful few weeks midseason, his worth had flatlined. Whereas hindsight is 20/20, even the staunchest of supporters could have contemplated a fallout. Fortunately it by no means got here and Mahomes rebounded within the coming weeks and all of it looks like a fever dream at this level. Holding the child GOAT was the apparent play, however it’s important to be further cautious along with your studs.
Conner nonetheless managed to attain 5 mixed TDs from Weeks 10-15, however he’s missed Weeks 16 and 17 so we’re a disappointing postseason away from seeing his worth dip. I made the argument that TD-dependent scorers like Conner not often retain worth. This nonetheless holds and whereas I’ll be listening to provides this offseason, I might solely transfer him on a win-now if I acquired a really robust provide. I feel it’s time to promote in rebuilds in case you haven’t already.
Issues have gotten weirder and wackier within the Packers’ QB room. I feel Aaron Rodgers’ days are numbered in Inexperienced Bay and this offseason will solely see Love’s worth swell, if solely incrementally. Shopping for him in all probability gained’t come low cost as managers will anticipate a Jalen Hurts-type upside for each promising younger QB whereas conveniently ignoring the lengthy historical past of the place’s boom-or-bust custom.
I wrote about Aiyuk once more forward of Week 10 after a small uptick in Week 9. He didn’t fairly hit like I had hoped within the second half of the season, since I ticked up his advice from HOLD/HOLD to HOLD/BUY, however he definitely rebounded. To see my 2022 ideas and analysis on Aiyuk, see my Weeks 6-9 dynasty recap.
DPJ tripped me up into changing into a believer after consecutive large video games, however we in all probability ought to’ve seen via it. In Weeks 6 and 9, he totaled six receptions for 187 yards and three scores on eight targets. Quantity isn’t every thing for receivers as it’s for operating backs however that focus on whole is a purple flag. Peoples-Jones failed to search out the top zone in Weeks 10 and past. However given the storm brewing with Baker Mayfield and the Browns group, this cross assault has me backtracking. I don’t thoughts holding him if he’s my fifth- or sixth-best receiver, however his worth plateaued and now slumped, so the worth transfer is to only maintain and hope.
My 2022 Analysis:
- Mahomes: HOLD/HOLD (B)
- Conner: HOLD/SELL (B)
- Love: BUY/BUY (B-)
- Aiyuk: HOLD/HOLD (A)
- Peoples-Jones: HOLD/HOLD (C-)
- WR Robert Woods (Win-Now: SELL, Rebuild: SELL)
- QB Mike White/Zach Wilson (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: SELL)
- RB Javonte Williams (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: BUY)
- Tennessee Titans
Even when wholesome, I begin to squirm in my pants when gamers attain age 30. Receivers can generally put collectively a patchwork few seasons however they both should be constructed like Larry Fitzgerald to post-up defensive backs or they should be extra fast than quick slot guys who can discover delicate spots in protection. Woods suits the latter, however I don’t imagine he’ll be capable of maintain off Van Jefferson and possibly Odell Beckham Jr. returns. I’d quite take a flier on a rookie with any choose I can get for Woods.
I wrote about my analysis of Wilson in my Weeks 6-9 dynasty recap.
I saved it very transient when speaking about Williams and whereas the notion has shifted a bit, it largely needed to do with one large recreation in Week 13, when he had 23 carries for 102 yards plus six receptions for 76 yards and a rating. The rub is that’s the one recreation all 12 months he noticed greater than 60% of the offensive snaps. I feel it’s very clear the Broncos will draft a operating again now that Vic Fangio is gone and Gordon might be a UFA this offseason. This isn’t to say Williams might be in one other cut up backfield in 2022, however there are some gaps to fill in his arc. Given his price ticket and what you’ll need to give up to get him, I want extra of a certain factor. All that mentioned, he’s a purchase after which some. My 2022 fantasy breakout participant of the 12 months standing on him nonetheless rings true.
I pooh-poohed the Titans on the time. They had been 8-2 and sitting fairly on a six-game win streak regardless of accidents and up-and-down play on offense. They completed 12-5, closing with 4-3. I feel each participant has stunk it up so badly that we’ve sunk previous SELL and we’re caught with holding them. Certain, you need to hold Derrick Henry in win-now, however can you actually be excited with anybody else? You might view A.J. Brown as a purchase, however his 2021 damage his worth because it confirmed his flooring is definitely fairly decrease than what we anticipated after a powerful 2020. Tannehill was considered a low QB1 and whereas he’s a rock-solid QB2 in superflex, is there a lot distinction between him and Derek Carr or Carson Wentz? D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard gained a little bit of traction as handcuffs or deep bench stashes. Julio Jones… My pricey, candy Julio. I suppose you could be excited for Nick Westbrook-Ikhine as a flex play, however he’s nonetheless severely restricted in upside given the Titans’ run-first method. He’s consuming as a result of Brown just isn’t. No matter how far this crew goes within the postseason, there are extra questions than solutions on offense.
My 2022 Analysis:
- Woods: SELL/SELL (B+)
- White/Wilson: SELL/SELL/SELL (A)
- Williams: HOLD/BUY (B+)
- Titans (A)
I used to be excellent in Week 12. Didn’t get something fallacious as a result of we took off for Thanksgiving.
- QB Russell Wilson (Win-Now: BUY, Rebuild: BUY, Superflex: BUY)
- QB Mac Jones (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: HOLD, Superflex: HOLD)
- RB Christian McCaffrey (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: SELL)
- RB Antonio Gibson (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: BUY)
I spent a number of time hashing out situations on Wilson staying in Seattle or going. I’m nonetheless not satisfied the crew opts to maintain him and ship off Pete Carroll as a substitute, however we’ll see the way it performs out. Perhaps his eagerness to depart has extra to do with administration than Carroll alone. I view 2021 as a coupon code you possibly can submit at checkout when making a commerce provide for Wilson. His worth is a teensy bit decrease now as a result of we’ve seen no reprieve from the Seahawks’ struggles and the offseason will definitely be chock filled with articles asking “should he stay or should he go?” That is the epitome of a buy-low.
Jones, probably the most pro-ready QB within the draft, turned out to be probably the most pro-ready QB. Shock, shock as I said, the rookie’s commerce worth peaked. And has since declined and perked again up after an enormous Week 17 recreation in opposition to Jacksonville. My analysis of Jones could be greatest summarized as he enjoys a training employees that is aware of exactly what his limitations are and asks him to do nothing past that. There are perks to that, à la 2020 Ryan Tannehill—he’s to me Alex Smith or Ryan Fitzpatrick 2.0. Except the Patriots add a no-doubter WR1 like Davante Adams or Chris Godwin. Understanding the Patriots, they’ll want to get cute and add Allen Robinson and Michael Gallup and proceed to skirt by on the effectivity of 8-yard curl and comeback routes. I’m very begrudgingly holding Jones however I’m praying some overzealous Pats fan buys into the hype and is keen to overspend.
McCaffrey’s second large damage this 12 months pressured me to return again with a told-ya-so evaluation. CMC’s worth took the dreaded second dip going from close to untouchable headed into Week 1 to wavering in late October to a brand new low at the beginning of 2022. Shockingly, the dynasty gluttons are nonetheless holding comparatively agency. Younger bucks Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, D’Andre Swift and Javonte Williams are the clear new wave on the place, however no veterans have finished a lot to push CMC off the worth ledge. Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Prepare dinner and Austin Ekeler are all on his heels, although. McCaffrey turns 26 this summer time, and I’ve little doubt he might nonetheless be a top-two operating again with 15-plus wholesome video games performed. I simply don’t imagine he’s able to that and would favor to money out whereas I can nonetheless fetch 90 cents on the greenback for him. I additionally wrote about him in my Weeks 6-9 recap.
My outlook on Gibson nonetheless boils right down to my learn on his expertise quite than specializing in his utilization and manufacturing. Like Terry McLaurin, all of Washington’s playmakers are handicapped by a wildly inconsistent offense. I’m nonetheless unsure if Taylor Heinicke is basically the reply right here, and it additionally appears Ron Rivera has job safety. Giving a training employees and unproven gamers time to blossom is a sound transfer, even when I don’t essentially imagine there’s a lot of a silver lining. Finally, Gibson is in a gentle state of affairs to see 15 touches per week and about 60% of the snaps. Whereas the shine has worn off, I wouldn’t thoughts kicking the tires for a worth examine, however we’re taking a look at him like a mid-RB2 now. Is 2021 his flooring? Finally, I imagine it’s nearer to his flooring than his ceiling, which is why I like him as a slight buy-low worth.
My 2022 Analysis:
- Wilson: BUY/BUY/BUY (A)
- Jones: HOLD/HOLD/HOLD (B+)
- McCaffrey: HOLD/SELL (A)
- Gibson: HOLD/BUY (B)
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