2022 NCAA tournament chances for ACC, Pac 12, WCC

Welcome to Sports activities Illustrated’s weekly faculty hoops mailbag with Kevin Sweeney. Right here, Kevin will area questions submitted by way of Twitter and electronic mail about quite a lot of matters within the sport. Have a query you’d like answered in a future mailbag? Ship it to @CBB_Central on Twitter or [email protected] (questions round both males’s or ladies’s basketball are welcome!). With out additional ado, let’s get to your questions, which have been evenly edited for grammar and readability …
D Brown asks: What’s subsequent for Northwestern? With a gutted/new athletic division, is Collins protected for the foreseeable future?
That’s not essentially my learn on the scenario. Chris Collins’s greatest defender at Northwestern was all the time going to be former Wildcats AD Jim Phillips. Phillips got here up the ranks in faculty athletics as an assistant basketball coach, and Collins was his splash rent at NU that introduced the Wildcats to the NCAA tournament for the primary time. Typically, a brand new AD (Derrick Gragg, on this case) will need the prospect to make a splash of their very own. And whereas Northwestern’s athletic division has undergone a substantial amount of transition within the final 12 months since Phillips’s departure for the ACC commissioner job, cash for a buyout isn’t missing, evidenced by the school’s recent plans to to take a position tons of of thousands and thousands of {dollars} into rebuilding Ryan Discipline.
Northwestern is a difficult job given its lack of successful historical past and educational hurdles, however it’s onerous to not consider Collins’s seat is scorching as a promising season falls by the wayside. Residence losses to Penn State and Maryland have left the Wildcats 1–4 in Massive Ten play with a grueling schedule forward that options 5 straight top-30 KenPom foes, together with three on the highway. A 1–9 or 2–8 begin is way from out of the query, and lacking the postseason with this veteran, proficient roster that includes a seemingly NBA draft choose in Pete Nance appears more likely to spur a transfer by Gragg.
David asks: Projected prime 5 within the ACC? What number of tournament bids?
- Duke
- North Carolina
- Miami
- Florida State
- Notre Dame
After Duke, this seems like an unbelievable crapshoot. It definitely feels incorrect to not have Virginia within the prime 5, and Wake Forest has been spectacular at instances and will belong right here as effectively. The margins between second and possibly eighth simply merely received’t be that large. I nonetheless assume North Carolina is one of the best crew within the league not named Duke, regardless of the Tar Heels’ continued struggles on the defensive finish of the ground. Armando Bacot and Caleb Love are too good to not carry the Heels to the NCAA tournament. Miami has an enormous leg up on the competitors due to its outstanding highway win at Cameron Indoor Stadium. That win, assuming the Hurricanes end within the prime 5 of the ACC, ought to get them into the NCAA tournament regardless of a NET rating that proper now seems to be extra like a fringe NIT crew. In the meantime, the Seminoles are beginning to discover some solutions, and I belief Leonard Hamilton greater than many of the coaches on this league, whereas Notre Dame has discovered its stride behind star freshman Blake Wesley.
Proper now, I believe the league will get 4 bids. Going .500 (or shut) in ACC play isn’t going to maneuver the needle a lot this 12 months given how weak the underside of the convention is, and the center isn’t as sturdy because it has been in years previous. That mentioned, a crew that may go 12–8 or 13–7 in a high-major league and didn’t have a catastrophic nonconference goes to search out its approach to the NCAA tournament, and I’d count on three non-Duke ACC groups to just do that.
Patrick asks: Will the 2 large stars for UConn and St. John’s—Sanogo and Champagnie—keep at school subsequent 12 months?
It’s early to invest on NBA choices, however these are two large ones looming for Massive East applications. Julian Champagnie took all the way in which to the deadline to make his choice final 12 months earlier than electing to return again to St. John’s and has performed extraordinarily effectively, although the Crimson Storm haven’t lived as much as the lofty expectations in Queens. Champagnie has nice dimension and elite taking pictures capacity, which is his ticket into the NBA. I’m undecided he has far more to show within the faculty sport, and the conversations about taking part in extra as a real wing haven’t actually materialized in 2021–22. He’s an elite faculty participant and a fringe NBA participant who SI’s Jeremy Woo at present has at No. 48 in his most up-to-date mock draft. I’d be stunned if Champagnie is again at St. John’s in ’22–’23.
I believe UConn’s chances of conserving Adama Sanogo for a 3rd season in Storrs are fairly good. Sanogo has been immensely productive in his sophomore marketing campaign, however as a 6’9” non-shooting large man he has extra work to do to enhance his inventory. I believe finally Sanogo will increase his perimeter sport, and he’s a terrific inside defender already. However that, mixed with coping with nagging accidents all through a lot of this season thus far, makes me assume Sanogo will seemingly be again for yet one more 12 months.
Jay Jay asks: How sustainable is that this Notre Dame win streak?
Notre Dame has received six straight to bounce again properly from a 4–5 begin, giving the Combating Irish life for a possible NCAA tournament push. How? Blake Wesley continues to play like one of many 10 finest first-year gamers within the sport. Throughout this successful streak, Wesley is averaging 17 factors, 4.0 rebounds and three.5 assists per sport. He was clearly one of the best participant on the ground after I was in South Bend to see the Irish tackle North Carolina final week, and his capacity to attain opens the ground for the Irish’s sharpshooting position gamers like Dane Goodwin and Nate Laszewski.
With Wesley and expertise round him, the Irish have the parts of an NCAA tournament crew. That mentioned, I don’t assume the crew has regarded drastically totally different through the successful streak than it did earlier than. Wesley is taking part in higher as he will get extra comfy, however the underlying crew effectivity numbers haven’t radically improved currently. ND has had a positive schedule thus far in convention play, and back-to-back highway video games at Virginia Tech and Louisville ought to inform us rather a lot. A cut up would go a great distance towards getting the Irish onto the best facet of the bubble come March.
Erwin asks: What number of groups within the Pacific and Mountain time zones get in?
We received’t fear in regards to the one-bid leagues out West for the needs of this query, however let’s speak about the place the Pac-12, WCC and Mountain West stand with about two months to go till Choice Sunday.
Within the Pac-12, Arizona, UCLA and USC are full locks and may every be in good place to compete for top-four seeds. However past these three, there are not any locks. The following finest guess is Oregon, which has new life after the Geese received on the highway at UCLA on Thursday evening. Dana Altman groups all the time enhance all through the season, and the Geese have just one dangerous loss on their résumé (at house to Arizona State). I’d guess on them discovering a approach in. Of the remaining contenders, Washington State has good metrics however a poor résumé, Stanford received a pleasant win over USC however is missing elsewhere, and Colorado seems to be like an NIT crew with a younger group to me. I’d say 4 bids proper now for the Pac-12.
Within the WCC, Gonzaga will clearly dance. The query is what number of of Saint Mary’s, San Francisco and BYU can get at-larges. BYU feels the most secure as of now, with a top-30 NET rating and wins over SDSU, Oregon, Utah, Utah State, Missouri State and Saint Mary’s already and just one dangerous loss at Utah Valley. Saint Mary’s has an identical résumé, with overlapping wins over Oregon, Utah State and Missouri State, plus a neutral-court win over Notre Dame on the Maui Invitational. It seemingly received’t be comfy till Choice Sunday, however I just like the Gaels’ odds. San Francisco’s résumé lacks name-brand wins, however neutral-court wins over Davidson and UAB are sneaky-good, and thus far the Dons have a clear résumé with no dangerous losses. In the event that they do some work within the WCC, this league has an ideal probability for 4 bids.
And at last, the Mountain West. Colorado State’s 13–1 report has earned CSU loads of hype, and neutral-court wins over Creighton and Mississippi State ought to assist transfer the needle. The Rams really feel just like the most secure at-large guess, even after getting trounced by San Diego State final weekend. The Aztecs even have sturdy at-large odds due to a clear résumé and a few high quality wins. Can a 3rd get in? Metrics love this Boise State crew, however an early-season loss to Cal State Bakersfield is an eyesore and none of Boise’s wins bounce off the web page from a résumé standpoint. There’s a path to an at-large, however it feels slender.
Extra School Basketball Protection:
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• Miami Is the Speak of the ACC