Forward of Saturday’s males’s Final Four, we’ll be previewing every of No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 1 Baylor, No. 2 Houston and No. 11 UCLA this week. First up is Houston, a program in quest of its first nationwide championship and making its first Final Four look since 1984. This is the whole lot you want to know concerning the AAC staff coached by Kelvin Sampson.
How It Received Right here
A lot has already been made about Houston’s path to the Final Four. Chaos within the Midwest area parted the seas for the Cougars, which turned the primary staff in match historical past to attain the Final Four by beating 4 double-digit seeds.
After blowing out Cleveland State by 31 factors to open the match, Houston acquired a a lot stiffer take a look at from Rutgers. The Cougars trailed by 9 with below 5 minutes to go in that one earlier than making their push, ending the sport on a 14–2 run to steal the win and advance. Houston had far much less hassle within the match’s second weekend, smothering Syracuse 62–46 earlier than grinding out a 67–61 win over Oregon State. Kelvin Sampson’s membership squandered a 17-point, halftime lead in opposition to the Beavers earlier than combating again to punch its ticket to the ultimate weekend.
One Huge Factor We’ve Discovered
Houston can win with out capturing nicely. As a staff it’s solely shot higher than 40% from the sphere as soon as within the match, and that got here within the opener in opposition to No. 15 seed Cleveland State. Towards Oregon State, the Cougars turned the primary staff in a minimum of the final 10 years to win a sport outdoors of the match’s first weekend when capturing below 33% from the sphere. How? Houston is a menace on the offensive glass. The Cougars snatched 18 offensive rebounds in opposition to Oregon State, 15 in opposition to Cleveland State, 14 in opposition to Rutgers and 11 in opposition to Syracuse. Generally the missed shot is Houston’s finest offense.
Finest-Case Situation
Houston hasn’t misplaced all season when star guards Quentin Grimes, DeJon Jarreau and Marcus Sasser all rating in double figures. When that trio performs its finest and is mixed with the Cougars’ elite protection and offensive rebounding, Houston is as laborious to beat as anybody within the nation. Grimes, Jarreau and Sasser could have sturdy competitors throughout from them in opposition to Baylor: Davion Mitchell is as disruptive as any guard within the nation, Jared Butler is an All-America and MaCio Teague is a particular shooter. Within the best-case state of affairs Houston’s guards match Baylor’s shot-for-shot and the remainder of the Cougars do their factor on the glass, giving UH sufficient further possessions to win this one.
Worst-Case Situation
Houston’s capturing woes proceed. It’s a bit regarding how a lot the UH offense has struggled to make photographs in opposition to Syracuse and Oregon State, a pair of defenses that rank nicely outdoors the highest 50 in KenPom’s adjusted effectivity metrics. Whereas Baylor’s high-intensity man-to-man is way completely different from the zones that OSU and Syracuse deployed, it’s greater than potential that the Cougars merely received’t give you the option to rating sufficient in opposition to the most effective offenses within the nation. It’s going to be laborious for Houston to hold this sport within the 50s and 60s like the way it prefers to play.
X-Issue: Foul Bother
Houston fouls … lots. Not solely is freely giving a lot of free throws a foul recipe in opposition to an offense pretty much as good as Baylor’s, however Houston can ailing afford to cope with important foul hassle for its high guards. The Cougars want their finest gamers to be on the ground and aggressive in a sport like this if they’re going to advance to the title sport.
One Shining Second Candidate: Tramon Mark
The freshman Mark has already proven off a aptitude for the dramatic this season. His 35-foot buzzer beater against Memphis in early March was one of many highlights of the season, and he adopted that up with the game-winning basket in opposition to Rutgers to full the comeback. Mark isn’t essentially the most environment friendly scorer, however his capacity to cross, defend a number of positions and assault off the bounce is effective when enjoying in opposition to a staff that pressures the ball in addition to Baylor does.
Crystal Ball
Houston can be in a position to exploit Baylor’s weak point on the defensive glass and switch it into a lot of second possibilities, however the Cougars merely received’t give you the option to make sufficient photographs to sustain with Baylor’s high-powered offense. Mitchell received’t permit the Houston guards to ever get into rhythm, and the Bears hit sufficient threes on the different finish to win and advance to the nationwide title sport.
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