2021 Genesis Invitational – DFS Plays, Bets, and Fades

Earlier 2021 PGA Tour Occasion Winners & DraftKings Wage

  • AT&T Pebble Seashore Professional-Am: Daniel Berger ($10,100)
  • Waste Administration Phoenix Open: Brooks Koepka ($8,800)
  • Farmers Insurance coverage Open: Patrick Reed ($10,100)
  • The American Categorical: Si Woo Kim ($8,200)
  • Sony Open: Kevin Na ($7,500)
  • Sentry Event of Champions: Harris English ($8,700)

$9,000+ Vary

Ben Heisler: Patrick Cantlay

DraftKings Price: $9,600

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +1600

Cantlay’s 4 rounds at Pebble Seashore have been an enchanting case research. He opened with a blistering 62, struggled with a 73 on day two, bounced again into rivalry with a 70 on Saturday and let Sunday slip away regardless of a 68. He was terrific placing the ball however ended up arising quick a handful of instances along with his putter. He gained 2.8 strokes general however gave up a full stroke from 15-20 ft away.

Regardless, Cantlay ranks fourth in strokes gained: whole, and second in SG: round-the-inexperienced over his previous 24 rounds. It’s additionally a hometown occasion the place he’s gone T4, T15 and T17 over his profession.

Whereas he got here up quick just a few instances on the greens final weekend at Pebble Seashore, I don’t see that being a difficulty on the quicker poa greens at Riviera. Luckily, his DraftKings price can’t change, however his odds have already shot up from +1800 at some books, so lock him in when you nonetheless can.

Further Performs to Take into account:

  • Bryson DeChambeau – $10,100 | +1700
  • Xander Schauffele – $9900 | +1550

Mark Farris: Xander Schauffele and Brooks Koepka

DraftKings Price: Schauffele ($9,900) | Koepka ($9,700)

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: Schauffele (+1550) | Koepka (+2500)

How about all of them besides Jordan Spieth as a result of he nonetheless hasn’t performed on a Sunday… Oh wait, can’t try this!

Significantly although, that is so robust this week! Nearly all the guys above $9,000 are both enjoying very properly or have been enjoying very properly earlier than the quick vacation break between the tip of December and early January.

DJ is the apparent alternative, however he’s additionally immensely costly at $11,300. It’s actually the identical with all the blokes above $10K. Nevertheless, with the standard of this area and the pricing, I’ve managed to place a lineup along with DJ-DeChambeau-Garcia and DJ-Scott-Hovland-Garcia that I wouldn’t be afraid to go to battle with.

I digress! In the end, Xander is my best choice as a result of he’s under $10K and his historical past at Riviera is T9-T15-T23. From 2018 by means of 2020 he’s dropped 14 spots, however Xander is tuned in proper now and I feel shall be on web page 1 come Sunday.

Brooks is somebody I like as a result of I feel the “blame the poor play on the damage and restoration” period is over. He isn’t within the Prime 10 on my mannequin of fifty% Present Type, 25% Key Stats, 25% Course Historical past, however he additionally hasn’t had nice present kind and has solely performed right here twice; as soon as with a missed minimize. I feel that he could also be one that’s ignored on this Tier due to that.

$7,500 – $8,900

Ben Heisler: Carlos Ortiz

DraftKings Price: $7,800

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +9000

There are notable golfers within the $8K vary that I’m joyful to roster, however I feel the worth presents exceptionally properly for Ortiz this week.

His current kind appears to be like terrific, with no missed cuts since mid-October on the Shriners, and he’s coming off a T4 on the Waste Administration Phoenix Open the place he was spectacular along with his putter. Ortiz gained 7.5 strokes placing that week, together with 2.5 between 15-20 ft. He at the moment ranks eighth within the area over his previous 24 rounds in strokes gained whole and round-the-inexperienced.

He’s additionally a beast on poa greens, averaging 0.5 strokes gained on this service in comparison with bentgrass and bermuda. I’ll gladly take the worth on Ortiz priced within the mid-tier vary regardless of rating eighth in each SG: whole, in addition to SG: round-the-inexperienced.

I additionally am a fan of each Joaquin Niemann ($8,800) and Vikor Hovland ($8,700) at their worth-factors, however fear a bit about Niemann not enjoying because the Sony Open again in January. Each, nevertheless, have excellent metrics and match very properly for Riviera.

Mark Farris: Viktor Hovland

DraftKings Price: $8,700

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +3500

I’m shocked that he’s at this worth! I might have anticipated him within the excessive $9K vary and perhaps within the 5-determine grouping given his expertise degree and current play. He final performed two weeks in the past in Saudi Arabia and completed T6. He’s solely been outdoors the Prime 15 twice within the seven occasions previous to that. That is additionally a tough course and he appears to play properly on them.

In my mannequin, he ranks ninth and is the one man within the Prime 10 under $9K. No expertise at Riviera on this event, however I wish to suppose that isn’t a deterrent to enjoying him.

Bonus: In that very same mannequin, numbers 11 by means of 13 are Cameron Tringale ($7,600), Carlos Ortiz ($7,800) and Sergio Garcia ($7,700). Simply saying! That’s a reasonably stable core and you haven’t breached $9K with a participant but. And, for the report, Bubba Watson at $8,900 is a increase-or-bust play at Riviera. He’s both Prime 15 (together with 3 wins) or CUT/WD within the final 10 visits to Riviera.

$7,400 and Below

Ben Heisler: Talor Gooch

DraftKings Price: $7,200

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +17500

It’s becoming that I steal Farris’ man this week, however the metrics appear to help him much better than the current outcomes. He has three missed cuts in his final 5 tournaments, however he’s additionally proper round prime 20 in SG: whole and seventeenth in SG: placing.

Additionally, by way of the nice Rick Gehman, Gooch has “gained strokes in all four major Strokes Gained categories” regardless of being in a backside-tier worth vary. Gehman additionally factors out that he’s gone T20 and T10 in his two appearances on the Genesis Invitational.

Mark Farris: Matt Kuchar

DraftKings Price: $7,200

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +12500

Sure, I do know he’s not enjoying in addition to he can. Sure, I do know he’s getting up there in age relative to the present PGA Tour mixture of gamers. Nevertheless, whenever you get to this degree in fact and this worth vary, a “Reduce Made is Worth Laid”.

Kuch hasn’t missed a minimize right here since 2014 and completed T2 right here final 12 months. I feel he shall be effective and, with Maverick McNealy (who obtained a variety of air time final week – and rightly so), Emiliano Grillo, and Sam Burns proper round him, he could go a bit of underneath the radar. Title recognition would be the solely factor preserving that from occurring, however anybody watching these days will know these three are enjoying properly.

Prime Fade

Ben Heisler: Brooks Koepka

DraftKings Price: $9,700

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +2500

It’s a “daring technique” to go and fade the man who simply gained the Waste Administration Phoenix Open just a few weeks in the past heading into one other huge event this week, however let’s additionally do not forget that Koepka had three missed cuts in a row earlier than TPC Scottsdale and wasn’t precisely in tip-prime kind.

There’s at all times a threat in fading somebody as gifted as Koepka, and I wouldn’t take into account it for a significant, however on this explicit case, I’ll play the blokes I do know to be extra constant in the same worth vary: Cantlay ($9,600), Schauffele ($9,900), Morikawa ($9,500), Finau ($9,300). Plus, Riviera hasn’t handled Koepka all too properly up to now with a T43 and a missed minimize in his two appearances.

Is lightning in a bottle going to strike twice? I feel not.

Mark Farris: Daniel Berger ($9,400)

DraftKings Price: $9,400

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +2800


I’d love to return to Rickie Fowler as a fade, however at $7,500, he’s barely out of our third tier and it could be “bush-league” to name a fade on that. In addition to, he’ll offer you big worth IF he makes the minimize – and that’s no assure these days with Rickie.

So, why Daniel Berger? As a result of I’ve to offer you somebody! Out of all the blokes $9,000 and above, he’s the one one with questionable course historical past. He additionally gained final week and I’m additionally betting on the put up-win week letdown. Not a collapse, however a letdown.

He’s solely performed right here twice – 2016 and 2018 – and missed the minimize each instances. Not like Kuchar and Fowler, “simply making the minimize” for a man that’s $9,400 isn’t as helpful. In reality, a man at $7,500 or decrease simply lacking the minimize could do much less hurt to your whole rating {that a} excessive-priced man barely making it. The way you ask? Spending $7,400 and $7,500 on two guys provides you wage house. Spending $9,400 for a sixty fifth place end often gained’t do you a lot good.

Once more, it’s robust this week! Pricing is properly-unfold and a variety of huge names are enjoying and enjoying properly! Good luck!

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